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[cvxfreak]

I don't think 3DS will surpass the sales of the DS, unless Nintendo keeps the system around for a longer time period than the DS, which would be quite a feat considering the DS is 6 years old on December 2.

What will happen to the Brain Age demographic: they continue playing with their current DS hardware. The DSi and DSi XL actually include miniaturized versions of Brain Age built into the current hardware, which might explain some of the decline in sales of the software version, but Nintendo will need to provide other incentives for those people to upgrade to a 3DS, and I see that as reasonably difficult to do.

 

[BishopLamont]

I don't think 3DS will surpass the sales of the DS, unless Nintendo keeps the system around for a longer time period than the DS, which would be quite a feat considering the DS is 6 years old on December 2.

What will happen to the Brain Age demographic: they continue playing with their current DS hardware. The DSi and DSi XL actually include miniaturized versions of Brain Age built into the current hardware, which might explain some of the decline in sales of the software version, but Nintendo will need to provide other incentives for those people to upgrade to a 3DS, and I see that as reasonably difficult to do.

I don't see what makes the Brain Age demographic so unique that they will stick to the current DS forever, its not like that's the only game that appeals to them, the DS is so successful because they manage to mould these once non-gamers to try out more fleshed out but still accessible bridge games. Who's to say that Nintendo even needs them in the first place? There's plenty of other demographics to go after, gamers or non-gamers included. BA already stopped selling way before the mini BA games came out, and I hardly think its because this group of gamers just simply disappeared, rather market saturation happened, games don't keep selling forever.

Why don't you think the 3DS will last longer than 6 years? It's pretty obvious the DS slowed down in major software releases because of the 3DS, and with the more powerful hardware this time around, I see third parties and Nintendo themselves support it for even longer. Imagine the DS was as powerful as the PSP, it would have practically stole all the support, or at least shared its support, it would have cleaned up even more, similiar to the Wii's power problem. Does anyone not think the Wii would practically have the same support as the HD systems get if they were parity in power? Its a multiplatform world now. Third parties will have learnt a lot of lessons this generation, they're not going to fall behind even further next-gen. Next-gen is going to be even more costly, they're not going to miss out on that Nintendo money again.

 

[onken]

Yeah as I've said previously, 3DS brings 3 things to the table, 3D, better graphics, better Internet connectivity. None of which are exactly a big pull to the Japanese mass market. Add to this the fact that DS hardware and software will get cheaper once the 3DS is released, it's got an uphill battle on its hands.

 

[Nirolak]

Yeah as I've said previously, 3DS brings 3 things to the table, 3D, better graphics, better Internet connectivity. None of which are exactly a big pull to the Japanese mass market. Add to this the fact that DS hardware and software will get cheaper once the 3DS is released, it's got an uphill battle on its hands.

I'm also fairly curious as to what kind of price bump we might see on 3DS software relative to current DS prices.

 

[Dalthien]

3rd parties had nothing to do with the success of DS, the system took off literally only with the power of Nintendo. That 3DS has huge (Japanese) third party support from day 1 it's a very big plus but Nintendo's output is again the one that will determine how big success it will be.

Very true. Nintendo ultimately carries all of their systems, because they are by far the most dominant publisher in Japan. They had to do all of the heavy lifting on their own in order to establish the DS. But it appears that they will at least have some help from 3rd-parties in getting the 3DS off and running. That's an advantage for the 3DS.

The genre that made DS a phenomenon: Brain Training
It's dead. It was the one that pushed people who never had dealed with video games before to buy a DS. That market has shrinked so much that is almost non existant.
(Where's Brain Age 3DS?). How will Nintendo convince these people now to enter 3DS gaming?

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong - but if I remember correctly, Iwata was able to snag the licensing rights for the first two Brain Age titles from Dr. Kawashima for like a dollar (not literally, but they paid next to nothing for the licensing rights). Once the game took off to become such a monster success, there was no way Nintendo could get the rights to another game without paying a fortune. I'm almost positive that's why the 2nd game was pushed out the door so fast (before any legal wrangling and negotiating could complicate its release), and why Nintendo branched off into Big Brain Academy, which was successful on its own merits, but nowhere near the same level as Brain Age. I'm pretty sure the Brain Age license is done (although a new Big Brain Academy is certainly possible), unless the two sides can work out some sort of arrangement that Nintendo would be comfortable with.

3DS will start stronger than DS but as Wii has shown that alone is not enough. Months 2-4 were slow for DS (those were the months PSP had some good sales) but after then it never looked back. Gamecube was dead, PSP was a non factor and the only real competitor was PS2 which was slowing down year by year. Competition became strong for DS only after the introduction of PSP slim.
3DS has DS, PSP, Wii and PS3 to face.

I think you might understate the DS competition early on. During 2005, the PS2 was still stronger than either the PS3 or Wii today, and the PSP was still every bit as strong (if not stronger in terms of hardware) than the PSP of today. As you've said before in other threads, the main competition for the 3DS at launch will be the DS, not the other systems.

Conclusion: 3DS will be huge but matching the success of DS will be very, very hard.

Absolutely. The DS didn't just break the record for most successful system ever - it absolutely crushed it. Becoming the new all-time champ at anything is always very, very hard.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

3DS has DS, PSP, Wii and PS3 to face.

I say none of those 4 have particular impact(do you really think the people that brought brain training, nintendogs in droves would have been affected by the PS3?)

Most people here being on the outside looking in, you all seem to be ignoring what game companies here see as their biggest threat: Mobile/Social Gaming.

Two Words that really need to be used more often here when talking about the near future of
Gaming in Japan: Gree and Dena.



Beyond looking at the console aspect of the DS Launch, Gree and Dena did not exist when DS was launched. Gree and Dena's core users are the same casual users who brought a DS, their time(and at some points money) is now being used up by those social services.

Of course children will buy the 3ds, but will the office lady who is now content with/spends her time farming with her friends on her cell-phone be willing to? Does she even have time to do so?

Note: this argument point can be semi-rebutted by mention of the fact that Friend collection came out just recently, targeting the same audience.

3DS. Believe.

Seriously, I find it surprising that you would think that. Its certainly going to happen, its only a matter of time, even if its 20 generations later.

Heh, 20 console generations from now for the thing to sell 40 millon every person in Japan would have to buy 2 of them.

 

[Chris1964]

21. / 27. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo)
22. / 21. [PS3] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2010 (Konami)
23. / 28. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite [PSP the Best Reprint] (Capcom)
24. / 31. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo)
25. / 00. [PSP] Kazoku Keikaku (CyberFront)
26. / 23. [PS3] ModNation Racers (SCE)
27. / 34. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.)
28. / 29. [NDS] Digimon Story: Lost Evolution (Bandai Namco)
29. / 42. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo)
30. / 20. [PS2] J-League Winning Eleven 2010: Club Championship (Konami)
31. / 26. [PS3] Assassin's Creed II: Special Edition (Ubisoft)
32. / 43. [NDS] Kaidan Restaurant: Ura Menu 100-Sen (Bandai Namco)
33. / 30. [PSP] Momotaro Railway Tag Match: Friendship - Cooperation - Winning Volume! (Hudson)
34. / 47. [NDS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 2 (Square Enix)
35. / 10. [NDS] Battle Spirits: Digital Starter (Bandai Namco)
36. / 48. [NDS] Tamagotchi no Pichi Pichi Omisecchi (Bandai Namco)
37. / 32. [PS3] White Knight Chronicles: Awakening of Light and Darkness (SCE)
38. / 33. [PSP] Last Ranker (Capcom)
39. / 40. [NDS] Tokimeki Memorial: Girl's Side 3rd Story (Konami)
40. / 38. [PSP] Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker (Konami)
41. / 39. [NDS] Quiz! Hexagon II (Bandai Namco)
42. / 49. [PSP] Naruto Shippuden: Kizuna Drive (Bandai Namco)
43. / 35. [PSP] Busou Shinki: Battle Masters (Konami)
44. / 41. [WII] Tetris Party Deluxe (Hudson)
45. / 00. [NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo)
46. / 37. [PSP] Ys Vs. Sora no Kiseki: Alternative Saga (Nihon Falcom)
47. / 46. [NDS] Katekyoo Hitman Reborn! DS Flame Rumble XX: Kessen! Real 6 Chouka (Takara Tomy)
48. / 44. [NDS] Love Plus + (Konami)
49. / 50. [PSP] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010: Blue Samurai Challenge (Konami)
50. / 00. [NDS] Metal Fight Beyblade: Bakugami Susanoh Shuurai! (Hudson)

00. / 00. [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) - 941.960 / 34.247.936 (-3%)

NDS - 22
PSP - 13
WII - 9
PS3 - 5
PS2 - 1
360 - 0

 

[Vic]

I guess it's time we start talking seriously about 3DS since it's less than 4 months away.

3rd parties had nothing to do with the success of DS, the system took off literally only with the power of Nintendo. That 3DS has huge (Japanese) third party support from day 1 it's a very big plus but Nintendo's output is again the one that will determine how big success it will be.

DS brought touch screen, 3DS brings 3D. I don't see the introduction of 3D in handhelds such a big innovation as the introduction of stylus.

The genre that made DS a phenomenon: Brain Training
It's dead. It was the one that pushed people who never had dealed with video games before to buy a DS. That market has shrinked so much that is almost non existant.
(Where's Brain Age 3DS?). How will Nintendo convince these people now to enter 3DS gaming?

3DS will start stronger than DS but as Wii has shown that alone is not enough. Months 2-4 were slow for DS (those were the months PSP had some good sales) but after then it never looked back. Gamecube was dead, PSP was a non factor and the only real competitor was PS2 which was slowing down year by year. Competition became strong for DS only after the introduction of PSP slim.
3DS has DS, PSP, Wii and PS3 to face.

Conclusion: 3DS will be huge but matching the success of DS will be very, very hard.

What exactly tells you that Nintendo won't be able to create new software phenomenons with the 3DS? They've done it over and over again with the Wii & DS this generation. Yes, Nintendo showed nothing in that front at E3 but let's not forget that games like Nintendogs and Brain Training weren't revealed until one year into the DS lifetime.

 

[Quadrangulum]

What exactly tells you that Nintendo won't be able to create new software phenomenons with the 3DS? They've done it over and over again with the Wii & DS this generation. Yes, Nintendo showed nothing in that front at E3 but let's not forget that games like Nintendogs and Brain Training weren't revealed until one year into the DS lifetime.

Yes. I think the potential of the 3DS is underestimated in this regard. Something novel (like expanded reality puzzles) may very well engage the expanded audience in a similar way.

 

[cvxfreak]

I don't see what makes the Brain Age demographic so unique that they will stick to the current DS forever, its not like that's the only game that appeals to them, the DS is so successful because they manage to mould these once non-gamers to try out more fleshed out but still accessible bridge games. Who's to say that Nintendo even needs them in the first place? There's plenty of other demographics to go after, gamers or non-gamers included. BA already stopped selling way before the mini BA games came out, and I hardly think its because this group of gamers just simply disappeared, rather market saturation happened, games don't keep selling forever.

The people who bought a DS initially for nintendogs or Brain Age and then happened to move onto other games will be fine with the DS for at least a few more years. The DS has an enormous catalog and the building budget-priced line up from third parties. The whole reason they got into DS gaming in the first place was because of the price-friendliness and ease of gameplay. Why should the elderly lady in the wheelchair I saw at Bic Camera the other day asking staff to demo Brain Age to her care about the 3DS?

The 3DS has so far been more positioned as a feature and visual-rich platform, and it's traits such as these that do not go after the Brain Age demographic because that's not what they're looking for. There's this strange notion of "once a gamer, always a gamer," but Nintendo taught us how untrue that actually is. Nintendo's job now is to prevent a gaming relapse of sorts, and ex-lapsed gamers are more susceptible to relapsing than other gamers. A robust DS catalog with good prices and a diverse catalog will, in my opinion, do better to serve those ex-lapsed gamers than the 3DS will for the foreseeable future.

Nintendo is better off going after the Monster Hunter crowd (aka the present active PSP userbase) than the existing Brain Age crowd. That's not to say Nintendo shouldn't try to incorporate non-gamers into their 3DS strategy, but there's more resistance this time around if a non-gamer/lapsed gamer didn't already buy a DS. Even more so with Android and iPhone growing into alternative handheld gaming machines.

Why don't you think the 3DS will last longer than 6 years? It's pretty obvious the DS slowed down in major software releases because of the 3DS, and with the more powerful hardware this time around, I see third parties and Nintendo themselves support it for even longer. Imagine the DS was as powerful as the PSP, it would have practically stole all the support, or at least shared its support, it would have cleaned up even more, similiar to the Wii's power problem. Does anyone not think the Wii would practically have the same support as the HD systems get if they were parity in power? Its a multiplatform world now. Third parties will have learnt a lot of lessons this generation, they're not going to fall behind even further next-gen. Next-gen is going to be even more costly, they're not going to miss out on that Nintendo money again.

Because 6 years is a long time. The 3DS surely will not be dead in 6 years, just like the GBA made it to 2007 and DS is obviously thriving in 2010, but the chances of a successor coming out in 2016 or 2017 are certainly not low.

 

[BishopLamont]

Heh, 20 console generations from now for the thing to sell 40 millon every person in Japan would have to buy 2 of them.

No I meant that any console can surpass the DS even after 20 generations, not that the 3DS will take that long.

The people who bought a DS initially for nintendogs or Brain Age and then happened to move onto other games will be fine with the DS for at least a few more years. The DS has an enormous catalog and the building budget-priced line up from third parties. The whole reason they got into DS gaming in the first place was because of the price-friendliness and ease of gameplay. Why should the elderly lady in the wheelchair I saw at Bic Camera the other day asking staff to demo Brain Age to her care about the 3DS?

The 3DS has so far been more positioned as a feature and visual-rich platform, and it's traits such as these that do not go after the Brain Age demographic because that's not what they're looking for. There's this strange notion of "once a gamer, always a gamer," but Nintendo taught us how untrue that actually is. Nintendo's job now is to prevent a gaming relapse of sorts, and ex-lapsed gamers are more susceptible to relapsing than other gamers. A robust DS catalog with good prices and a diverse catalog will, in my opinion, do better to serve those ex-lapsed gamers than the 3DS will for the foreseeable future.

Nintendo is better off going after the Monster Hunter crowd (aka the present active PSP userbase) than the existing Brain Age crowd. That's not to say Nintendo shouldn't try to incorporate non-gamers into their 3DS strategy, but there's more resistance this time around if a non-gamer/lapsed gamer didn't already buy a DS. Even more so with Android and iPhone growing into alternative handheld gaming machines.



Because 6 years is a long time. The 3DS surely will not be dead in 6 years, just like the GBA made it to 2007 and DS is obviously thriving in 2010, but the chances of a successor coming out in 2016 or 2017 are certainly not low.

I don't expect the non-gamers to lap up the 3DS like they did for the DS but they'll certainly jump on board as more expanded games are released and the price is dropped. At the same time that Nintendo risks losing these non-gamers again, they also have a portion of them already moving on to more fleshed out games. The point is that Nintendo has already built its brand with the expanded audience, it'll take much less convincing to appeal to these gamers again. Nintendo has shown its easier to capture the expanded audience then hardcore gamers, they just need a "hook" to lure them, where as hardcore gamers require a variety and consistent stream of games, something Nintendo can't provide. It's not like Nintendo is going all out hardcore with the 3DS, they already have plans for casual games, starting with Nintendogs + cats. Just because the 3DS is more tech focused then the DS, doesn't mean the budget suddenly skyrockets to HD level of development, there's still the option of creating more casual games with a low budget. I'll agree iPhone gaming and such poses a threat but Nintendo is the top dog here, they still have the upper hand. Even the PS3 and 360 doesn't have the name brand of Nintendo's staple of IPs.

Just like the DS won't die as soon as the 3DS is released, the 3DS won't die as soon as its successor is released, so this argument is pretty pointless since it applies to all consoles. Who's to say the 3DS' successor will be released 6 years after? Like I said before, Nintendo is preparing the 3DS for a longer lifespan then the DS with more power, that alone will garner more support for longer, since we can all agree the 3DS will be huge, even if its not DS huge. The extended life span of the 360 and PS3 has changed the game, predicting when the 3DS' successor comes out is way too soon at this point.

Lets say the Wii2 comes out in 2012, then they're once again juggling support for 2 consoles again, I think its more ideal if they tried to extend the consoles life since if all goes to plan, third parties should be there to carry it and they can get an even better hard start on the next-next-gen. I know its pretty hypocritical of me to mention next-next-gen, but what the hey.

 

[Man God]

I'm also fairly curious as to what kind of price bump we might see on 3DS software relative to current DS prices.

$20 Super Budget (Same)

$30 Budget (New price point as there are few to none $25 DS games)

$35 Deal games (DS equivalent of the $30 smaller Atlus releases)

$40 Standard games/Most 1st party releases (Up from $35 for DS)

$45 First party games with accessories (Up from $40 for DS)

$50 Square Enix Tax games, First party games with ridiculous accessories (Up from $40)



This is my guess. I bet like the PSP which started with a model rather like this that the prices will probably come down later in the gen back to that $30-$35 sweet spot. $30 is an especially good price if you can manage it as it is literally half the price of a new 360/PS3 game and folks love getting 2 for 1.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

No I meant that any console can surpass the DS even after 20 generations, not that the 3DS will take that long.
.

Well this is getting picky! But I understand what you meant, when I said "for the thing" I meant that for a console which exists 20 console generations(about 100-150 years from now) from now to sell 40 millon, the future console(the thing) would have to be purchased by every person in Japan twice.


____

Better Translation: the outlook of sales of toys and products aimed at younger generations in Japan is not one of growth, as Japan's population slowly dwindles away.

 

[BishopLamont]

Well this is getting picky! But I understand what you meant, when I said "for the thing" I meant that for a console which exists 20 console generations(about 100-150 years from now) from now to sell 40 millon, the future console(the thing) would have to be purchased by every person in Japan twice.


____

Better Translation: the outlook of sales of toys and products aimed at younger generations in Japan is not one of growth, as Japan's population slowly dwindles away.

So the sales of toys to kids will be virtually nonexistant in 150 years? What? Aren't we also a little past the "Nintendo is for kids" stigma by now?

With that statement you just predicted the population of Japan, the number of kids, the popularity of toys and the popularity of consoles in 150 years, all in one go. You really think the population of Japan will only be 20M? :lol

I think that homer sales of vinyl record gif applies here, sir Nostradamus.

 

[Celine]

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong - but if I remember correctly, Iwata was able to snag the licensing rights for the first two Brain Age titles from Dr. Kawashima for like a dollar (not literally, but they paid next to nothing for the licensing rights). Once the game took off to become such a monster success, there was no way Nintendo could get the rights to another game without paying a fortune. I'm almost positive that's why the 2nd game was pushed out the door so fast (before any legal wrangling and negotiating could complicate its release), and why Nintendo branched off into Big Brain Academy, which was successful on its own merits, but nowhere near the same level as Brain Age. I'm pretty sure the Brain Age license is done (although a new Big Brain Academy is certainly possible), unless the two sides can work out some sort of arrangement that Nintendo would be comfortable with.

The new back then was actually that Dr. Kawashima refused US$ 22 million in royalties !
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gMwDe1ovbiILhtf3JKM2Ez79rGvA

Also I'm currently reading Nintendo Magic and it is explained in it how at the time Iwata proposed the idea about Brain Training to Miyamoto, Miyamoto had already one of his team under a similar project later known as Big Brain Academy.
Miyamoto was already enthusiast about those kind of projects that sent one of his programmers to help Iwata's group to develop Brain Training.

EDIT:
I agree with Chris that 3DS will hardly surpass DS in Japan ( LTD I mean ).
I don't forget that DS did the impossible selling more than 9 million units in a single year so the 3DS need to do the out of ordinary to beat it.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

With that statement you just predicted the population of Japan, the number of kids, the popularity of toys and the popularity of consoles in 150 years, all in one go. You really think the population of Japan will only be 20M? :lol
.

Edit: Just to be clear, I'm making this clear due to the short term outlook of mobile social games, and then the long term outlook of the decline of Japanese's population, that Chris's point is extremly valid. Really, this is a problem that every industry in Japan has to face and discuss.

__


Whee, This is why I love internet forums! Sorry, I thought Japanese's population problem was common knowledge, everything there is not my prediction(although, yes I did use hyperbole). Here's some fun charts(if you want I can go dig up articles about the toy crisis in Japan's future)

(National Social Security and Population Problem Research Institute) Data

Aging population

___

Just so I can be semi-on topic:

On Hatchma's Run-down of Retail store blogs, almost all of them are sold out of ACE and many of them report higher-then usual prices at .hole sales stores.

 

[BishopLamont]

Whee, This is why I love internet forums! Sorry, I thought Japanese's population problem was common knowledge, everything there is not my prediction(although, yes I did use hyperbole). Here's some fun charts(if you want I can go dig up articles about the toy crisis in Japan's future)

So after 130 years of increasing population, Japan is going to suddenly slide to oblivion and old people are going to rule the whole country. I find that really hard to believe. Either way, I'm not interested in discussing this further. You understand my point, it's gone far longer than its suppose to.

 

[Chris1964]

Nirolak
Moderator

When did this happen? Are we having new mods every month? Congrats.

I don't forget that DS did the impossible selling more than 9 million units in a single year so the 3DS need to do the out of ordinary to beat it.

It sold 8,4 million in a year that what Nintendo shipped every Saturday was sold out until Sunday. It could easily be over 10 million if there was the supply. Second best result is again from DS next year with 7,2M and third from PS1 when Sony had shipped~6M in 1997 (Final Fantasy VII year - we don't have tracked hw numbers).

 

[cvxfreak]

No I meant that any console can surpass the DS even after 20 generations, not that the 3DS will take that long.


I don't expect the non-gamers to lap up the 3DS like they did for the DS but they'll certainly jump on board as more expanded games are released and the price is dropped. At the same time that Nintendo risks losing these non-gamers again, they also have a portion of them already moving on to more fleshed out games. The point is that Nintendo has already built its brand with the expanded audience, it'll take much less convincing to appeal to these gamers again. Nintendo has shown its easier to capture the expanded audience then hardcore gamers, they just need a "hook" to lure them, where as hardcore gamers require a variety and consistent stream of games, something Nintendo can't provide. It's not like Nintendo is going all out hardcore with the 3DS, they already have plans for casual games, starting with Nintendogs + cats. Just because the 3DS is more tech focused then the DS, doesn't mean the budget suddenly skyrockets to HD level of development, there's still the option of creating more casual games with a low budget. I'll agree iPhone gaming and such poses a threat but Nintendo is the top dog here, they still have the upper hand. Even the PS3 and 360 doesn't have the name brand of Nintendo's staple of IPs.

By this logic, all those wonderful gamers who bought Famicom systems should have migrated over to the Super Famicom. By this logic, any successor should outsell a predecessor because they build the brand. Unfortunately, it's not that simple. While undoubtedly many lapsed gamers who bought the DS will move onto the 3DS, there are so many other factors at work that I predict will prevent the 3DS from selling 40 Million units in Japan.

Interestingly, I actually think the 3DS will outsell the DS eventually in other markets outside of Japan.

Just like the DS won't die as soon as the 3DS is released, the 3DS won't die as soon as its successor is released, so this argument is pretty pointless since it applies to all consoles. Who's to say the 3DS' successor will be released 6 years after? Like I said before, Nintendo is preparing the 3DS for a longer lifespan then the DS with more power, that alone will garner more support for longer, since we can all agree the 3DS will be huge, even if its not DS huge. The extended life span of the 360 and PS3 has changed the game, predicting when the 3DS' successor comes out is way too soon at this point.

This brings about the "why develop for successor when predecessor carries the fanbase" argument that occurred when deciding whether to put a game on PS2/DS or PS3/3DS. For hardcore gamers, eventually they'll make the switch, but it's not as clear whether DS gamers necessarily need new hardware. The Japanese government is actually forcing all consumers to eventually adopt televisions with digital broadcasting (and therefore HD), but there's less pressure for these people to go to the 3DS.

There's one clear example that demonstrates my line of thinking very, very well: Pokemon Black and Pokemon White.

 

[Chris1964]

Interestingly, I actually think the 3DS will outsell the DS eventually in other markets outside of Japan.

This year DS will outsell PS2 in the U.S. with 2009 being its best year ever. It has yet to see the pricedrops Japan and Europe saw. Maybe 3DS has a shot for Europe but Japan and U.S. look untouchable right now.

 

[spwolf]

Edit: Just to be clear, I'm making this clear due to the short term outlook of mobile social games, and then the long term outlook of the decline of Japanese's population, I think Chris's point is extremly valid. Really, this is a problem that every industry in Japan has to face and discusses.

__


Whee, This is why I love internet forums! Sorry, I thought Japanese's population problem was common knowledge, everything there is not my prediction(although, yes I did use hyperbole). Here's some fun charts(if you want I can go dig up articles about the toy crisis in Japan's future)

this is not that big of an issue, Japan will start importing people more .

 

[Chris1964]

GEIMIN finally uploaded Famitsu 2009 top 1000. Better late than never guys.

 

[Jokeropia]

Project Diva 2 pushed the PSP past the DS, I can't see why a MH spin-off can't do the same, especially with a bundle on offer.

Due to a bundle. Bundle driven hardware boosts are not uncommon.

But the recent PSP softwares boosted its sales a little bit, past weeks.
I'm not talking about doubling sales, but 40k+ instead of 30k+.

With the bundle this might happen, but 40k+ is not enough to "surely" put it on top.

 

[Datschge]

So after 130 years of increasing population, Japan is going to suddenly slide to oblivion and old people are going to rule the whole country. I find that really hard to believe.

Believe it or not, this is actually a very real issue that every now fully developed country with little immigration has. Japan is not the only example at all.

 

[The_lascar]

So after 130 years of increasing population, Japan is going to suddenly slide to oblivion and old people are going to rule the whole country. I find that really hard to believe. Either way, I'm not interested in discussing this further. You understand my point, it's gone far longer than its suppose to.

Japan is simply the country who has the worst birth rate of the world.

 

[cvxfreak]

This year DS will outsell PS2 in the U.S. with 2009 being its best year ever. It has yet to see the pricedrops Japan and Europe saw. Maybe 3DS has a shot for Europe but Japan and U.S. look untouchable right now.

I don't think the U.S. looks so untouchable. Unless this slow economy drags on, I see the 3DS being bigger than the DS out of the gate. The U.S. handheld market actually has a lot of room to grow through the increased participation of third parties, so I'm betting on the 3DS being on par or more popular than the original DS in the U.S. Not to mention, unlike Japan, the U.S. population is actually growing steadily.

 

[dolemite]

Japan is simply the country who has the worst birth rate of the world.

They should allow more immigrants in.

 

[Chris1964]

Most important gaming records in Japan

-Best selling LTD hardware -> GB/GBC is first with 32.430.000, DS is second with 30.827.011

-Best selling LTD software -> PS2 is first with 196.041.000, DS is second with 147.194.000

-Best selling YTD hardware -> DS is first with 8.862.969 (2006) and second with 7.143.702 (2007), PS1 is third with ~6.000.000 (1997)

-Best selling YTD software -> DS is first with 39.130.595 (2007) and second with 38.817.800 (2006), PS2 is third with 34.055.200 (2004)

-Biggest week for a system -> PS2 with 630.552 (launch week - 2 days on sale: 04/03/00-05/03/00), DS is second with 614.748 (19/12/05-25/12/05), GBA is third with 611.504 (launch week - 5 days on sale: 21/03/01-25/03/01)

-Biggest week for a title -> [PS1] Final Fantasy VIII (Square) - 2.504.044 (4 days on sale), [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (Square Enix) - 2.343.440 (2 days on sale)

-Best selling title (seperate SKUs) -> [NFC] Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 6.810.000, [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 5.872.895

-Best selling title (combined SKUs) -> [NGB] Pokemon Red / Green / Blue / Yellow (Nintendo) - 10.077.166, [NDS] Pokemon Diamond / Pearl / Platinum (Pokemon Co.) - 8.306.714

-Most million sellers -> Famicom + Famicom Disk System has 42, DS is second with more than 35 eventually.


DS will take the record for best selling hardware from GameBoy before 2010 ends and will eventually have a LTD of 35-40M.

It is also a great competitor to take the crown from PS2 for best selling software if Nintendo doesn't abandon it completely after 3DS comes out since PS2 has stopped selling and won't have a LTD bigger than 198M. DS will sell another 25-30M this year.

famitsu 2000 CY 27/12/99 31/12/00 xxx [PS2] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 7.601.400 / 7.601.400
famitsu 2001 CY 01/01/01 30/12/01 xxx [PS2] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 18.817.400 / 26.418.800
famitsu 2002 CY 31/12/01 29/12/02 xxx [PS2] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 26.947.500 / 53.366.300
famitsu 2003 CY 30/12/02 28/12/03 xxx [PS2] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 31.519.900 / 84.886.200
famitsu 2004 CY 29/12/03 26/12/04 xxx [PS2] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 34.055.200 / 118.941.400
famitsu 2005 CY 27/12/04 25/12/05 xxx [PS2] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 29.084.000 / 148.025.400
famitsu 2006 CY 26/12/05 31/12/06 xxx [PS2] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 24.410.700 / 172.436.100
famitsu 2007 CY 01/01/07 30/12/07 xxx [PS2] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 13.262.872 / 185.698.972
famitsu 2008 CY 31/12/07 28/12/08 xxx [PS2] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 7.111.971 / 192.810.943
famitsu 2009 CY 29/12/08 27/12/09 xxx [PS2] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 3.230.000 / 196.040.943

famitsu 2004 CY 29/12/03 26/12/04 xxx [NDS] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 1.211.400 / 1.211.400
famitsu 2005 CY 27/12/04 25/12/05 xxx [NDS] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 11.753.500 / 12.964.900
famitsu 2006 CY 26/12/05 31/12/06 xxx [NDS] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 38.817.800 / 51.782.700
famitsu 2007 CY 01/01/07 30/12/07 xxx [NDS] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 39.130.595 / 90.913.295
famitsu 2008 CY 31/12/07 28/12/08 xxx [NDS] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 28.260.498 / 119.173.793
famitsu 2009 CY 29/12/08 27/12/09 xxx [NDS] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 28.020.000 / 147.193.793

Pokemon Black / White has a shot to have the best week ever if Nintendo decides to provide a big first shipment to retailers (but it has 2 SKUs combined).


Some of these records are very difficult to change hands.

-Best selling LTD hardware: With DS at 35-40M it looks almost impossible.
-Best selling YTD hardware: with DS at 8.862.969 it is also very difficult.
-No title came even close all these years to outsell Super Mario Bros. for Famicom. NSMB will end somewhere at 6M+ and it will be the closer one.
-Pokemon Red / Green / Blue / Yellow with 10M has 4 SKUs and Pokemon Black / White / Grey might come close to that number even if it lacks an SKU. But still it will be very difficult to outsell the original Pokemon.

3DS is the system that has good possibilities to take some records from that list.

-It can have the biggest week for a system already from its first week in market (2 days?) if Nintendo can ship the necessary number of 3DS at day 1.
-Best selling LTD and YTD software aren't as difficult as hardware. PS2 sw was based mostly on third parties while DS sw mostly on Nintendo, at least at the first years of DS. 3DS will be a combination of these two.
-Most million sellers record for the same reason.
-Biggest week for a title is a record that can break from many games on 3DS.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

I guess it's time we start talking seriously about 3DS since it's less than 4 months away.

3rd parties had nothing to do with the success of DS, the system took off literally only with the power of Nintendo. That 3DS has huge (Japanese) third party support from day 1 it's a very big plus but Nintendo's output is again the one that will determine how big success it will be.

DS brought touch screen, 3DS brings 3D. I don't see the introduction of 3D in handhelds such a big innovation as the introduction of stylus.

The genre that made DS a phenomenon: Brain Training
It's dead. It was the one that pushed people who never had dealed with video games before to buy a DS. That market has shrinked so much that is almost non existant.
(Where's Brain Age 3DS?). How will Nintendo convince these people now to enter 3DS gaming?

3DS will start stronger than DS but as Wii has shown that alone is not enough. Months 2-4 were slow for DS (those were the months PSP had some good sales) but after then it never looked back. Gamecube was dead, PSP was a non factor and the only real competitor was PS2 which was slowing down year by year. Competition became strong for DS only after the introduction of PSP slim.
3DS has DS, PSP, Wii and PS3 to face.

Conclusion: 3DS will be huge but matching the success of DS will be very, very hard.

It's up to Nintendo to make 3DS sell higher then DS. They have to find some game that can use intelligently the 3D effect. Particularly the fact that you can see a same object from at least two points of view.

But let me add that while Brain Training started DS's craziness, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart and New Super Mario bros conducted the handheld to the definitive success. I can see people buy 3DS just to look at the 3D effect without glasses. And just to see a new Mario in front of you, seeming you're into the game. I mean: this is enough to sell the system even at more then 200$.

But I agree that if Nintendo aim to reach the 150-200k per week in Japan once again, they have to aim for something completely new, in addition to the 3D effect.

 

[Chris1964]

The impact of 3D effect is overestimated. It's all about software.

 

[cw_sasuke]

3DS can outsell the DS - CrossPlay will take off big in Japan i would guess. Strong support from Nintendo and 3rdPartys. We still dont know how man 3DS version there will be - if they put out a 3DS XL, 3DS Mini, 3DS Pad, 3DS Phone, 3DS 3G Version etc. it could sell +50 million.

But at the end its way too early to speculate about 3DS overtaking the DS, when the DS is still selling. There are still some unknown facts about the 3DS and we dont know what Sony is planning on their handheld-front.

Nevermind, if well integrated CrossPlay will be big.

 

[Celine]

Nirolak
Moderator

When did this happen? Are we having new mods every month? Congrats.

It sold 8,4 million in a year that what Nintendo shipped every Saturday was sold out until Sunday. It could easily be over 10 million if there was the supply. Second best result is again from DS next year with 7,2M and third from PS1 when Sony had shipped~6M in 1997 (Final Fantasy VII year - we don't have tracked hw numbers).

I was thinking about the 9.12 million units shipped that ( fiscal ) year in Japan.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

The impact of 3D effect is overestimated. It's all about software.

Once you have it in your hands, very few of them will not buy it, IMHO.

 

[Chris1964]

I was thinking about the 9.12 million units shipped that ( fiscal ) year in Japan.

Aha FY 2006

Media Create: 9.205.502
Famitsu: 9.307.638

 

[Vic]

3DS can outsell the DS - CrossPlay will take off big in Japan i would guess. Strong support from Nintendo and 3rdPartys. We still dont know how man 3DS version there will be - if they put out a 3DS XL, 3DS Mini, 3DS Pad, 3DS Phone, 3DS 3G Version etc. it could sell +50 million.

But at the end its way too early to speculate about 3DS overtaking the DS, when the DS is still selling. There are still some unknown facts about the 3DS and we dont know what Sony is planning on their handheld-front.

Nevermind, if well integrated CrossPlay will be big.

Yes. In the long-term, this feature will probably be more important than the stereoscopic screen as a selling point. This fact came to me after reading an interview made with Horii about DQIX where he mentioned how the map-hunting through tag mode became huge in Japan.

 

[Celine]

Aha FY 2006

Media Create: 9.205.502
Famitsu: 9.307.638

Just crazy

I was wondering while reading the varoius records if Sony has ever released the shipped software LTD for each regions ( as Nintendo does ) for their platforms cause NES is at 226M in Japan.

 

[Chris1964]

I was wondering while reading the varoius records if Sony has ever released the shipped software LTD for each regions ( as Nintendo does ) for their platforms cause NES is at 226M in Japan.

I' ve seen somewhere PS1 and PS2 software shipments from Sony for Asia, not only Japan.

EDIT: Found it. They stopped providing seperate shipments for regions after March 31, 2007.
http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/index_e.html

 

[onken]

Those Wii Party ads are still rolling like there's no tomorrow, guess they want to get their money's worth from the wad they must have had to give to Johnny's.

Also seen the Other M ad a few times just today, seems lack of marketing won't be a problem.

e~ also finalfantasydog can you keep that sort of Japan data burst stuff to a minimum, it really doesn't do much to dispel the myth that these threads are just occupied by Japan-obsessed weirdos not actually interested in sales, and frankly it's kind of embarrassing

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

e~ also finalfantasydog can you keep that sort of Japan data burst stuff to a minimum, it really doesn't do much to dispel the myth that these threads are just occupied by Japan-obsessed weirdos not actually interested in sales, and frankly it's kind of embarrassing

First, there is no aggression at all in my statements, nothing but love, no intention to argue, just want to discuss(no need for a reply, just throwing this out).

Onken - What level of discourse do we want in terms of predictions here? Just going from gut feelings? Or incorporating social factors outside of the game industry?

If you are going to be predicting Japanese markets 40 years/generations(or even 10) from now, it's important pretext that needs to be know. This is basic Japanese economics 101 knowledge, not Japan-obsessed weirdo stuff.

It's a similar situation with DENA and GREE, almost every single game industry analyst in Japan brings it up as a major factor in predicting and looking at the future(I can link quite a few 3ds prediction articles that bring it up). However these types of factors have a tendency to be considered the same as to what they are in America (a.k.a DENA + GREE being lumped in as iphone gaming) and overlooked in favor of hyper-scrutiny of charts(which is also good).

Saying all that: Yeah, big graphs are too much. I'll just do quotes/ links to reputable websites,.

Fake Edit:
Example: I just read this article yesterday about the success of Pretty_Cure(anime, ds game) http://zasshi.news.yahoo.co.jp/article?a=20100816-00000001-president-bus_all first sentence brings up the birth rate in Japan.

___

This space is reserved for talk of the social phenomenon of what percentage of weekly 360 sales from Japan are going to China

 

[Chris1964]

Finally we have a number of preorders for Pokemon Black / White.

Pokemon Black & White Tops One Million Pre-orders

Pokemon Black & White has already gone platinum, and it's not even out yet! Pokemon Co. announced today that the game has topped a million units in pre-orders.

As of the 22nd, total consumer pre-orders for Black & White have reached 1.08 million units (according to Media Create tracking data). Pre-orders started on July 31.

This is a new speed record for the DS platform, Pokemon Co. says. The company expects pre-orders to top the 1.5 million mark ahead of the game's September 18 release.

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2010/08/23/pokemon_black_white_preorders/

 

[cvxfreak]

Totally unsurprising preorder numbers for me. This will be huge.

 

[Chris1964]

Pokemon Co. is giving tips for small shipment again.

1,1M preorders the first 3 weeks and they expect 400k more the remaining 4 weeks.
Something does not compute.

 

[wizword]

That bell curve for japan population is absurd. There will be more immigration and a larger English presence 30 years from now. These population bell curves tend to be hysterical. I remember the absurd Los Angeles ucla which stated that the Mexican immigrants will all have 6 children

 

[duckroll]

Here's an interesting comparison I've been meaning to do...

Sengoku Bassara (PS2, 2005) - 167k
Sengoku Basara 2 (PS2, 2006) - 285k
Sengoku Basara 3 (PS3/Wii, 2010) - >400k and counting

Sengoku Musou (PS2, 2004) - 1.02 million
Sengoku Musou 2 (PS2, 2006) - 562k
Sengoku Musou 3 (Wii, 2009) - 270k

It's kinda impressive how Koei completely torpedoed one of their key brands. They basically lost 50% of the audience with each installment, while Capcom somehow managed to start as the underdog and doubled their audience with each installment.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Speaking of Koei, where the fuck are the Musous? Last one was Hokuto just before fiscal year ended for some needed make-up.

Then nothing. Nothing on the horizon other than the western vaporware Troy Musou.
Shin Sangoku Musou 5 Xtreme Legends? Shin Sangoku Musou 6? Sengoku Musou 3 Special? Sengoku Musou 3 Empires? Warriors Orochi 3? Gundam Musou 3? Hokuto Musou 2?

I don't know whats more surprising, that nearly 5 months in the fiscal year there has been 0 musou and there are 0 announced, or that Koei hasn't announced bankruptcy yet given that.

 

[Oldschool]

Hey guys, what can we expect for the new Monster Hunter for PSP? Will it be a big hit like MH or Animal Crossing?

 

[farnham]

Here's an interesting comparison I've been meaning to do...

Sengoku Bassara (PS2, 2005) - 167k
Sengoku Basara 2 (PS2, 2006) - 285k
Sengoku Basara 3 (PS3/Wii, 2010) - >400k and counting

Sengoku Musou (PS2, 2004) - 1.02 million
Sengoku Musou 2 (PS2, 2006) - 562k
Sengoku Musou 3 (Wii, 2009) - 270k

It's kinda impressive how Koei completely torpedoed one of their key brands. They basically lost 50% of the audience with each installment, while Capcom somehow managed to start as the underdog and doubled their audience with each installment.

arent musou titles pretty interchangable though

 

[spwolf]

Hey guys, what can we expect for the new Monster Hunter for PSP? Will it be a big hit like MH or Animal Crossing?

will MH be big hit as MH?

 

[Vic]

Who's doing the majority of the Gundam Musou games?

edit: Koei.

 

[Takao]

will MH be big hit as MH?

I think he means the cat spinoff MH game.