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[Grampa Simpson]

DQ and FF shouldn't be counted. Both has legions of fans dedicated to buying the next iteration.

I did say they'd continue to sell well. Along with Pokemon they're the Genre's Kings. The rest is floating towards niche status. Tales and Megami Tensei (and Fire Emblem and and Star Ocean) don't sell so well anymore, but are still notable. Kingdom Hearts and Mario RPG (paper/& Luigi) are both based on very large very popular franchises and get purchased primarily on that basis rather than solely on the basis that they're RPGs.

I don't know how to classify Monster Hunter. I haven't played it. If it's an RPG, it probably falls under the Genre King category.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I did say they'd continue to sell well. Along with Pokemon they're the Genre's Kings. The rest is floating towards niche status. Tales and Megami Tensei (and Fire Emblem and and Star Ocean) don't sell so well anymore, but are still notable.

Fire Emblem declined well before the phenomenon you're describing, FE DS was a bigtime revival for the franchise, and SMT sells as well as it ever did on the whole. SO--again, it's not clear that the franchise is in decline so much as it is that SO4 did not sell as well as any of the rest.

So I'm not sure the evidence supports your position

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Doesnt matter. They are still big properties in the RPG space, or do licenses and spinoffs somehow not count. Does SRW also not count?

I'm laughing at the idea that those games' primary selling points aren't that they've got Final Fantasy, Disney, and Mario characters in them. Yes they're jRPGs, but without their licensed/borrowed characters there's nothing special about them.

Ask the same thing of SRW. Without the licensed characters, would it be anything but good but ultimately not-very-special SRPG? Would anyone but SRPG fans have cared for the series if it had started with the Original Generation characters?

 

[HK-47]

I did say they'd continue to sell well. Along with Pokemon they're the Genre's Kings. The rest is floating towards niche status. Tales and Megami Tensei (and Fire Emblem and and Star Ocean) don't sell so well anymore, but are still notable. Kingdom Hearts and Mario RPG (paper/& Luigi) are both based on very large very popular franchises and get purchased primarily on that basis rather than solely on the basis that they're RPGs.

I don't know how to classify Monster Hunter. I haven't played it. If it's an RPG, it probably falls under the Genre King category.

Then maybe people should start making RPGs of popular properties. ANd Mario and KH are good enough games that plenty of people buy them cause they are good fun and not just cause of the IP. M&L 3 doesnt get that excellent tail if the game sucks.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

So I'm not sure the evidence supports your position

I'll go with that. I'm seeing this as more of an off the cuff correlation than anything. It's possible that I'm projecting the pattern onto what I've been suspecting as been mostly low sales for RPGs that I don't have enough historical evidence to really know. I think at some level, I assumed that in the PS1 era, if it were a JPRG it would almost automatically sell half a million copies.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Then maybe people should start making RPGs of popular properties. ANd Mario and KH are good enough games that plenty of people buy them cause they are good fun and not just cause of the IP. M&L 3 doesnt get that excellent tail if the game sucks.

I'm sure they're decent games, but they would not get nearly the sales and attention that they do if they weren't attached to such large properties.

I'm refusing to believe it, but it sounds like you're saying that kingdom hearts would sell just as well without Disney or Final Fantasy characters and locales.

And yes, RPG makers should be making more RPGs around popular properties if they want to increase their sales potential.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Based on the latest Famitsu hardware numbers...
PSP comparisons: After 234 weeks, PSP is where PS2 was at 187.9 weeks (October 5, 2003), where DS was at 101.6 weeks (November 9, 2006), and where GBA was at 158.3 weeks (March 30, 2004).

X360 comparisons: After 182 weeks, X360 is where GCN was at 16.9 weeks (January 6, 2002), where PS3 was at 37.9 weeks (July 28, 2007), and where Wii was at 5.5 weeks (January 3, 2007).

PS3 comparisons: After 134 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 45.0 weeks (January 7, 2001), where PSP was at 68.2 weeks (March 27, 2006), where GCN was at 124.1 weeks (January 25, 2004), and where Wii was at 35.3 weeks (July 31, 2007).

Wii comparisons: After 131 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 98.0 weeks (February 2, 2003), where DS was at 77.0 weeks (May 21, 2006), where PS2 was at 115.9 weeks (May 18, 2002), and where PSP was at 166.9 weeks (February 16, 2008).

DSi comparisons: After 31 weeks, DSi is where GBASP was at 46.2 weeks (December 29, 2003) and where DSL was at 16.1 weeks (June 19, 2006).

Based on the latest Media Create hardware numbers...
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 60.5 / 39.5 bring total shares to 68.3 / 31.7. If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 490.8 weeks (November 3, 2018).

X360 vs PS3: Weekly shares of 39.4 / 60.6 bring total shares to 24.6 / 75.4. If PS3 stopped selling and X360 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 323.4 weeks (August 19, 2015).

PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 37.2 / 62.8 bring total shares to 28.3 / 71.7. If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 477.8 weeks (August 4, 2018).

Week over week, DS comes down from its bump and the rest are pretty flat.

Through the first twenty-three weeks of the year, overall sales are down. However, the systems can be split into camps of 3 up and 3 down. Here's how the year-to-date year-over-year percents stand as of now.

Wii: -64.0%
DSL+DSi: +2.2%
PS2: -49.7%
PS3: +27.5%
PSP: -44.7%
X360: +233.6%

Home hardware: -37.1%
Portable hardware: -24.4%
Sum of all hardware: -29.5%

Last year:

This year:

EDIT: Thanks, kswiston. The overall is still correct--it changes sooo slowly, though, I haven't had to modify that part of the line in a month anyway.

 

[kswiston]

Based on the latest Media Create hardware numbers...
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 60.5 / 39.5 bring total shares to 68.3 / 31.7. If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 490.8 weeks (November 3, 2018).

Fixed for you (not sure if your typo affects total shares though)

 

[Jokeropia]

...why do you say this as if it's an obviously absurd statement instead of an accurate description of the Japanese software market?

Well the DS does get by far the most support (as it should), but some projects are obviously still going to other systems.

 

[donny2112]

Then maybe people should start making RPGs of popular properties.

Sonic Chronicles
Riz-Zoawd (Wizard of Oz RPG)

Just pointing out that there's been some movement into that direction already.

 

[ccbfan]

Wii comparisons: After 131 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 98.0 weeks (February 2, 2003), where DS was at 77.0 weeks (May 21, 2006), where PS2 was at 115.9 weeks (May 18, 2002), and where PSP was at 166.9 weeks (February 16, 2008).

Wow remember when the Wii was almost doubling the PSP sell rate just last year.

Wow much would the Wii need to average for the rest of the year to not fall behind the PSP?

From what I remember PSP goes through a strong stretch after Feb 16, 2008 with new colors and Monster Hunter P 2G.

 

[batbeg]

Sonic Chronicles
Riz-Zoawd (Wizard of Oz RPG)

Just pointing out that there's been some movement into that direction already.

Maybe I'm just being optimistic, but I imagine Dragonball Kai will be Monolith's best selling title this generation, as well (for that matter, is SRW OG Saga their current best?).

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Sonic Chronicles
Riz-Zoawd (Wizard of Oz RPG)

Just pointing out that there's been some movement into that direction already.

It's definitely a fairly strong way to try and keep the genre popular.

 

[shykyoichi]

Wow remember when the Wii was almost doubling the PSP sell rate just last year.

Wow much would the Wii need to average for the rest of the year to not fall behind the PSP?

From what I remember PSP goes through a strong stretch after Feb 16, 2008 with new colors and Monster Hunter P 2G.

MH3 + Black Wii will solve this.

 

[shykyoichi]

I did say they'd continue to sell well. Along with Pokemon they're the Genre's Kings. The rest is floating towards niche status. Tales and Megami Tensei (and Fire Emblem and and Star Ocean) don't sell so well anymore, but are still notable. Kingdom Hearts and Mario RPG (paper/& Luigi) are both based on very large very popular franchises and get purchased primarily on that basis rather than solely on the basis that they're RPGs.

I don't know how to classify Monster Hunter. I haven't played it. If it's an RPG, it probably falls under the Genre King category.

I think MH is an ARPG.

 

[test_account]

MH3 + Black Wii will solve this.

Maybe, but the PSP sold over 50k (Famitsu numbers) each week for about 5 months in a row after February 16, 2008. I think that MH3 + Black Wii and Wii Sports Resort will boost the Wii hardware sales, i agree, but will the boost be as big, or bigger, than what the PSP sold for about 5 months in a row after February 16, 2008? It is not too long (relatively speaking) until we will know the answer though

 

[AranhaHunter]

What is the next big release? Please tell me it isn't FFXIII.

Seems like it's Tales of Vesperia in September, though I don't expect that to sell more than 100k because it's a year old port and the 360 version sold only 150k or something like that.

 

[Eteric Rice]

I had to take a trip into Tokyo today and while I was there, took a little side trip to Akihabara. It's interesting to see the difference from my area, but also the similarities. I don't think anyone really understands how bad the "core" market is on the Wii. Man, it's terrible. I went to a few shops checking to see if any of them had Wii Motion Plus early (no go), but the Wii sections in most stores is small. It also seems a lot of stores filter out all of the fluff and only have the "core" games on display. When you look at it that way, the section is super small. Like my area some stores have the Wii section tucked in the back somewhere and I didn't see people actually looking for games. In contrast, the PSP, 360, PS3 sections are getting a lot of attention. It's kinda sad. Also, there were plenty of copies of ARF out there and I even saw some used...believe it or not. Plenty of copies of Metroid, too. Oh, and I found a lot of used PS3s. There were craploads of them. I was tempted to pick up a FFVII PS3. My wife didn't let me, though.

I seriously believe that 3rd parties are to blame for this. Thinking it's the "kiddie" system or a fad just screwed themselves over if they actually wanted to sell software on it in the future. Nintendo can't do this alone and the lack of any real blockbusters shows. Maybe the release of the black Wii and Monster Hunter 3 will start to change things around a bit, but I'm skeptical.

New Super Mario Bros gave the DS the boost it needed, hopefully Monster Hunter 3 and New Super Mario Bros Wii can do the same for the Wii.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Sonic Chronicles
Riz-Zoawd (Wizard of Oz RPG)

Just pointing out that there's been some movement into that direction already.

I don't know much about Wizard of Oz's international popularity, but I don't think Sonic was chosen for his Japanese popularity. Maybe if it had been Mario & Sonic at the Role-Playing Games.

Wow remember when the Wii was almost doubling the PSP sell rate just last year.

Yeah, those first 18 months or so really pushed it ahead... well, pretty much anything that wasn't DS. Since then it's hit a slump, but since it built up a big buffer it remains ahead. Actually, this might be a pretty interesting thing to make a line for. Subtracting the Wii week number from the PSP week number it's equivalent to, we can see visibly how many weeks ahead of PSP it has been at various times.

The peak is at Wii's week 74 (April 2008), where it was matching to PSP's week 174 (September 2007). Basically, this means that the Wii userbase at Mario Kart Wii was the same as PSP's userbase at Crisis Core/PSP-2000. However, after those points Wii slowed down and PSP sped up.

Wow much would the Wii need to average for the rest of the year to not fall behind the PSP?

It can't. If at 131 weeks Wii is where PSP was at 167 weeks, even if Wii sold 0 from now on it would take 36 weeks until they matched up. At that point, Wii at 167 weeks would be equal to PSP at 167 weeks. However, that would take us into 2010. If Wii remains in its current doldrums then it's possible they could end up matching up around 200 weeks?

New Super Mario Bros gave the DS the boost it needed

NSMB and the Lite were a big deal in the US, but DS was consistently in monster territory before and after NSMB in Japan. The only reason it had a hardware bump at all that week seems to be because some supply was held back from shortly before.

Maybe I'm just being optimistic, but I imagine Dragonball Kai will be Monolith's best selling title this generation, as well (for that matter, is SRW OG Saga their current best?).

I didn't realize DB Kai was a Monolith game until now. However, that being the case, it's their biggest game outside of the main PS2 Xenosaga releases. Kai actually topped OG Saga's lifetime sales on its second week, and is about to pass up Xenosaga III.

 

[donny2112]

Famitsu May 25-31

01./00. [NDS] Kingdom Hearts: 358/2 Days (Square Enix) - 291,211 / NEW
02./00. [NDS] Gyakuten Kenji (Ace Attorney Investigations: Miles Edgeworth) (Capcom) - 201,817 / NEW
03./00. [PS3] Shin Sangoku Musou 5 Empires (Koei) - 78,680 / NEW
04./00. [NDS] Higurashi no Nakukoru ni Kizuna: Dai San Kan - Rasen (3rd Chapter - Rasen) (Alchemist) - 26,391 / NEW
05./00. [PSP] Yuusha 30 (Half-Minute Hero) (Marvelous) - 25,863 / NEW
06./01. [NDS] Sloane and MacHale's Mysterious Story (Level 5) - 23,670 / 82,183 (-60%)
07./00. [PSP] Utawareru Mono Portable (Aqua Plus) - 23,157 / NEW
08./02. [NDS] Pro Yakyuu Team o Tsukurou! 2 (SEGA) - 18,150 / 64,736 (-61%)
09./00. [PS3] H.A.W.X. (Ubisoft) - 17,480 / NEW
10./00. [360] Shin Sangoku Musou 5 Empires (Koei) - 17,269 / NEW

11./05. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2 G (BEST) (Capcom) - 15,562 / 742,875 (+10%)
12./00. [NDS] Haruhi Suzumiya no Chokuretsu (The Series of Haruhi Suzumiya) (SEGA) - 15,435 / NEW
13./08. [WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 12,788 / 3,388,514 (+4%)
14./04. [NDS] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of the Sky (Nintendo/Pokemon Co.) - 11,914 / 329,484 (-21%)
15./07. [NDS] Made in Ore (Wario Ware) (Nintendo) - 10,414 / 156,692 (-22%)
16./09. [NDS] Mario & Luigi RPG 3!!! (Nintendo) - 9,127 / 624,035 (-7%)
17./00. [NDS] Tactics Layer: Ritina Guard Senki (D3 Publisher) - 7,491 / NEW
18./06. [PSP] Bleach: Heat the Soul 6 (SCEI) - 7,246 / 62,373 (-48%)
19./00. [WII] Play on Wii: Pikmin 2 (Nintendo) - 7,149 / 93,634
20./11. [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii (Namco Bandai Games) - 6,821 / 559,505 (-1%)
21./14. [NDS] Rhythm Tengoku Gold (Nintendo) - 5,598 / 1,729,497 (+2%)
22./00. [PSP] Memories Off 6: Trial Wave (5pb) - 5,127 / NEW
23./16. [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) - 5,103 / 2,253,146 (+2%)
24./10. [NDS] Dragon Ball Kai: Saiyajin Raishuu (Namco Bandai Games) - 5,069 / 176,725 (-46%)
25./21. [WII] Wii Sports (Nintendo) - 4,798 / 3,508,309 (+19%)
26./13. [WII] Winning Eleven Playmaker 2009 (Konami) - 4,650 / 24,979 (-18%)
27./00. [PSP] Youkoso Hitsuji Mura Portable (Welcome to Sheep Village Portable) (Success) - 4,534 / NEW
28./15. [WII] Monster Hunter G (Capcom) - 4,405 / 212,273 (-15%)
29./00. [NDS] A Witch's Tale: Apprentice Witch and Seven Princesses (Nippon Ichi Software) - 4,355 / NEW
30./00. [PS3] The Last Guy (SCEI) - 4,133 / NEW

*. [PS2] Myself; Yourself: Sorezore no Finale (Yeti) - 3,900 / NEW
*. [PSP] Bamboo Blade: Sorekara no Chousen (Gadget Soft) - 3,900 / NEW
*. [360] Battlestations: Pacific (Spike) - 3,500 / NEW
*. [NDS] Days of Memories 3 (SNK Playmore) - 3,500 / NEW
*. [NDS] Claymore: Gingan no Majo (Silver-Eyed Witch) (Digital Works Entertainment) - 2,100 / NEW
*. [PS2] Skip Beat! (5pb) - 2,100 / NEW
*. [WII] Ougon no Kizuna (Golden Bonds) (Jaleco) - 2,000 / NEW
*. [PS2] Kazeiro Surf (Russel) - 1,600 / NEW
*. [PSP] Sorayume Portable (Takuyo) - 1,500 / NEW
*. [PS3] Agarest Senki (BEST) (Compile Heart) - 1,100 / NEW
*. [PS2] Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories (BEST) (Capcom) - 520 / NEW


Bar Chart May 25-31 (thanks to JoshuaJSlone/garaph.info)

Note: Image may be delayed from the time of this post, but will automatically show once the data is ready.


Recent Famitsu Top 30s

Apr 27-May 10, 2009
May 11-17, 2009
May 18-24, 2009

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Famitsu Software Stuff

Kingdom Hearts: 358/2 Days had a great first week. And actually, it had only half as many days of availability as most games have their first week. Few games have only two days to sell on their first week, and among those that are in my records only 3 of them did better than Kingdom Hearts. Those games in chronological order are Gran Turismo 3, Dragon Quest VIII, and Pokémon Platinum. Of course, it's perfectly possible that many games that sold large amounts in a normal four day period would have bigger two day periods if we actually had that data.

Bleach: Heat the Soul 6 (3521) once again ridiculously closely mirrors the sales pattern of Bleach: Heat the Soul 5 (2874).

Probably thanks to some price drop, New Play Control! Pikmin 2 has a big jump on the charts, from #53 the previous two weeks to #19 this week.

Famitsu Software Pie: Thanks to Kingdom Hearts, DS takes 64.6% of software sales this week. This is the biggest percentage DS has had since September 2008.

 

[donny2112]

In the Media Create data from 43-50 are seven games that weren't on the Top50 last week. This includes Phoenix Wright 2 and 3 (NEW BEST) (joining Phoenix Wright 1 (NEW BEST) at #30) and the first ever appearance of KHII:FM+ (Ultimate) in a weekly MC Top 50. You can definitely see the impact of having older copies of a series title available as budget software when a new game in the series is released. People seem to tend to pick up the older titles more often when getting the new game in the series. We've seen it before with DMC3:SE (BEST) around DMC4 and MGS3 (BEST) around MGS4, for example.

 

[justchris]

I don't know much about Wizard of Oz's international popularity, but I don't think Sonic was chosen for his Japanese popularity. Maybe if it had been Mario & Sonic at the Role-Playing Games.

This entire concept fills me with fear.

 

[Hammer24]

Last year:

Do you have the numbers for the full year 2008?
Thx in advance!

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Same scale, so this one will be a bit bigger.

In the Media Create data from 43-50 are seven games that weren't on the Top50 last week. This includes Phoenix Wright 2 and 3 (NEW BEST) (joining Phoenix Wright 1 (NEW BEST) at #30) and the first ever appearance of KHII:FM+ (Ultimate) in a weekly MC Top 50. You can definitely see the impact of having older copies of a series title available as budget software when a new game in the series is released. People seem to tend to pick up the older titles more often when getting the new game in the series. We've seen it before with DMC3:SE (BEST) around DMC4 and MGS3 (BEST) around MGS4, for example.

Capcom in particular has seemed to benefit from this. Think they can rush out MHP G Wii Best next month?

 

[HK-47]

Sonic Chronicles
Riz-Zoawd (Wizard of Oz RPG)

Just pointing out that there's been some movement into that direction already.

Two games doesnt a movement make though. The other three game series I mentioned have been around much longer.

 

[cvxfreak]

Of course, it's perfectly possible that many games that sold large amounts in a normal four day period would have bigger two day periods if we actually had that data.

Anyone have a nice record of first day sales?

Capcom in particular has seemed to benefit from this. Think they can rush out MHP G Wii Best next month?

Maybe that'll hit when Monster Hunter 2 hits the Wii?

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Of course, it's perfectly possible that many games that sold large amounts in a normal four day period would have bigger two day periods if we actually had that data.

Anyone have a nice record of first day sales?

There's only a bigger 1st week than DQ8 record 2,2m in 2 days:
FF8 - 4 days (February 11-14, 1999) - 2,504,044

So that's the only possible candidate to have a bigger 2-day than DQ8. Bigger than KH358/2 though, those over 500k in 4 days could all have had bigger 2-days figures. Difficult to know, and I don't think we have first day sales from long ago (as in PSX days or early PS2 ones).


Btw, its always mentioned how DQ isn't as front-loaded as FF but taking into account its Saturday releases I doubt the difference is as big as it seems (in the main entries on Sony consoles at least):

FF7-9 have 62 to 72% percentages (first week to LTD)
DQ7 has a 48% but its first week being 2 days helped the "2nd" week sell over a million

FF10-12 have 75 to 79% percent
DQ8 has a 63% but again its a Saturday release

Guesswork here, adding 300k for days 3 and 4 would mean DQ7 had a 55% and DQ8 a 71%, much closer to the FF numbers.

 

[donny2112]

Btw, its always mentioned how DQ isn't as front-loaded as FF but taking into account its Saturday releases I doubt the difference is as big as it seems (in the main entries on Sony consoles at least):

I hadn't connected that old story about DQ games not being allowed to release on a workday to having a shorter first week for DQ games. Good point! This could probably be overcome by looking at first 2-week percentage vs. LTD instead of just first week percentage. Hmmm.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

I hadn't connected that old story about DQ games not being allowed to release on a workday to having a shorter first week for DQ games. Good point! This could probably be overcome by looking at first 2-week percentage vs. LTD instead of just first week percentage. Hmmm.

Indeed, going by totals as of the 2nd week FFVII actually was lower percentage wise to its LTD than DQVII:

DQ7 - 1,862,065 + 1,072,286 (9 days) / 3,893,293 (LTD) = 75.37%
FF7 - 2,034,879 + 329,740 (11 days) / 3,277,766 (LTD) = 72.14%
FF8 - 2,504,044 + 270,993 (11 days) / 3,501,588 (LTD) = 79.25%
FF9 - 1,954,421 + 328,404 (11 days) / 2,707,301 (LTD) = 84.32%

DQ8 - 2,236,881 + 559,524 (9 days) / 3,555,469 (LTD) = 78.65%
FF10 - 1,749,737 + 233,429 (11 days) / 2,325,215 (LTD) = 85.29%
FF10-2 - 1,472,914 + 181,798 (11 days) / 1,960,937 (LTD) = 84.38%
FF12 - 1,840,397 + 217,438 (11 days) / 2,322,541 (LTD) = 88.60%

This comparison still benefits DQ titles since what they sold day 10 and 11 doesn't count to their first two weeks numbers, but its way lesser benefit than the first one that I used (which had days 3-4 guessed to compensate).

PD: I'd do previous titles to see if it was any different on the Nintendo consoles but sadly the only title with the needed data available (looking at yso) is DQ6, which was a real leggy one because it was at 54% as of its 2nd week end (9 days), way way lower than all the above.

 

[shykyoichi]

Where can I find the LTD sales of games not in the Top 50? In the top 100? When do they release that?

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Where can I find the LTD sales of games not in the Top 50? In the top 100? When do they release that?

We had a thread about the Famitsu top 500 not long ago. It's released annually.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=363548

 

[bttb]

.

 

[schuelma]

Famitsu Estimates: First Shipment/Total Forecast

[NDS] Dragon Quest 9 (Square Enix) FS 2.3M-2.8M / TF 4.0M-5.0M (DQ8 FW 2.24M / LTD 3.56M)
[WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) FS 500K / TF 2.5M-3.0M (WS FW 180K / LTD 3.51M)
[WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) FS 500K-700K / TF 600K-800K (MH2 FW 370K / LTD 570K)
[PS3] Pro Yakyuu Spirits 6 (Konami) FS 80K-100K / TF 120K-180K (PYS5 FW 50k / LTD 100k)

http://dubai.2ch.net/test/read.cgi/ghard/1244807029/389

Interesting. MH 3 seems low.

 

[slaughterking]

And DQ IX seems rather high. No way it'll sell even close to 5 million.

 

[donny2112]

[WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) FS 500K-700K / TF 600K-800K (MH2 FW 370K / LTD 570K)

Edit:
I had raised my LTD estmate to 750K due to the Black Wii launching at the same time.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=16201373&postcount=122

 

[Hammer24]

And DQ IX seems rather high. No way it'll sell even close to 5 million.

DQ? In Japan? On that install base? I´d say its a certainty.

MH3 numbers look... cautious. Probably no one really knows how it´ll be received on the platform.

 

[EDarkness]

DQ? In Japan? On that install base? I´d say its a certainty.

MH3 numbers look... cautious. Probably no one really knows how it´ll be received on the platform.

I'm sure there's some truth there. I wouldn't be surprised if this game bombs. Everyone is holding their breath, though. I'm sure even Nintendo is.

 

[schuelma]

Wonder if those shipment numbers are more than guesses.

 

[schuelma]

I'm sure there's some truth there. I wouldn't be surprised if this game bombs. Everyone is holding their breath, though. I'm sure even Nintendo is.

I don't see how it will "bomb" given the push Capcom is making. I can see it maybe disappointing, but I'd be shocked if it does less than 700K.

 

[EDarkness]

I don't see how it will "bomb" given the push Capcom is making. I can see it maybe disappointing, but I'd be shocked if it does less than 700K.

In my area, I haven't really seen any ads around for it. Unlike Dragon Quest where you see stuff everywhere, even in the 7-11. I think the local Family Mart had a Monster Hunter 3 poster. I've seen basically the same kind of promotion that Arc Rise Fantasia got. I'll check around tomorrow since it's been a couple of days since I've made my rounds and it's possible some new things are around now.

 

[schuelma]

In my area, I haven't really seen any ads around for it. Unlike Dragon Quest where you see stuff everywhere, even in the 7-11. I think the local Family Mart had a Monster Hunter 3 poster. I've seen basically the same kind of promotion that Arc Rise Fantasia got. I'll check around tomorrow since it's been a couple of days since I've made my rounds and it's possible some new things are around now.

Well, remember there is still a month and a half before MH 3 is out. Just fwiw, I already saw in-store displays in a few of the shops I was at 3 weeks ago.

 

[[Nintex]]

Do those shipment numbers include hardware bundles?

 

[EDarkness]

Well, remember there is still a month and a half before MH 3 is out. Just fwiw, I already saw in-store displays in a few of the shops I was at 3 weeks ago.

Yeah. But there have been Dragon Quest 9 ads all over for months now. Don't get me wrong, I want this game to succeed. However, I think we need to temper our expectations a bit.

 

[donny2112]

Do those shipment numbers include hardware bundles?

They should, since Famitsu will be tracking the software sold as part of the bundles, too.

Only 100K for MH3 after the first shipment. They expect this thing to die shortly after launch.

 

[Hammer24]

I don't see how it will "bomb" given the push Capcom is making. I can see it maybe disappointing, but I'd be shocked if it does less than 700K.

I can see it going both ways... there is no precedent, so it could easily "bomb" into the 350-400k range. But on the other hand I can´t see the japanese market not gobbling up a fullblown MH release, so it could also very well go into the 2.5 mil realms.

 

[donny2112]

http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/

First Day in ()

[NDS] Infinite Space (SEGA) - 40K (30K)
[WII] Play on Wii: Chibi-Robo (Nintendo) - 11K (6K)
[PSP] Shinseiki Evangelion: Koutetsu no Girlfriend 2nd Portable (CyberFront) - 5.7K (LE 1K)
[PSP] Onore no Shinzuru Michi wo Yuke (From Software) - 5.1K (2K)
[NDS] Majo ni Naru (Tryfirst) - 4.5K (800)
[WII] Play on Wii: Metroid Prime 2 (Nintendo) - 1.7K (1.5K)
[NDS] Hayarigami DS: Toshidensetsu Kaii Jiken (Nippon Ichi) - 1.2K

 

[JDSN]

http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/

First Day in ()

[NDS] Infinite Space (SEGA) - 40K (30K)
[WII] Play on Wii: Chibi-Robo (Nintendo) - 11K (6K)
[PSP] Shinseiki Evangelion: Koutetsu no Girlfriend 2nd Portable (CyberFront) - 5.7K (LE 1K)
[PSP] Onore no Shinzuru Michi wo Yuke (From Software) - 5.1K (2K)
[NDS] Majo ni Naru (Tryfirst) - 4.5K (800)
[WII] Play on Wii: Metroid Prime 2 (Nintendo) - 1.7K (1.5K)
[NDS] Hayarigami DS: Toshidensetsu Kaii Jiken (Nippon Ichi) - 1.2K

About time, congrats to PG.

 

[cvxfreak]

Famitsu guesses aren't worth that much, really. I made a thread in 2007 with their predictions and most of them weren't that close.

 

[Vinci]

Famitsu Estimates: First Shipment/Total Forecast

[WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) FS 500K-700K / TF 600K-800K (MH2 FW 370K / LTD 570K)

Nu-uh. Too low. With a black Wii coming out?