You can wait, I can comment on what I feel is realistic. There is hardly any real marketing at all for the title, and it is being positioned as a niche game targeted at a smaller core fanbase. This is why they are marketing it the way they are, through Facebook, a few magazine articles, and demos on the eShop. This sort of marketing format is cheap and mostly the responsibility of the development staff, which shows the company doesn't view it as a significant investment at all. This also generally translate into low shipments, and along with the fact that most average consumers won't know or care what the game is, it won't sell a lot. Keep expectations low.
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Media Create Sales: Week 30, 2012 (Jul 23 - Jul 29)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
You can wait, I can comment on what I feel is realistic. There is hardly any real marketing at all for the title, and it is being positioned as a niche game targeted at a smaller core fanbase. This is why they are marketing it the way they are, through Facebook, a few magazine articles, and demos on the eShop. This sort of marketing format is cheap and mostly the responsibility of the development staff, which shows the company doesn't view it as a significant investment at all. This also generally translate into low shipments, and along with the fact that most average consumers won't know or care what the game is, it won't sell a lot. Keep expectations low.
electroplankton
Banned
Ok, so probably it's going to sell about 50-70k.
Isn't it a bit early to say that? So far it's true, the whole thing resembles the Crystal Bearer situation where the marketing strategy seemed promising but in the end, most of it was restricted to online stuff which appealed mostly to fans.
But that CB ended up selling poorly was likely more due to the fact that FF can't really reliably sell anything but traditional RPGs. And even that less and less.
Still, shouldn't SE at least try to match FWOL? The important marketing will be in the weeks before release, let's see if they'll make a decent attempt by then.
This has the SD aesthetics, it has the most loved traditional job system mechanic and it is on a healthy platform. FF of all varieties declining aside, especially classic FF (which only had one success story recently: FF3DS, and it went downhill after that), it does have sales potential. Now they're simply building word of mouth in fan circles and gauging reactions, I think.
electroplankton
Banned
Launching less than a month before Final Fantasy XIII, The Crystal Bearers was highly affected by Square's campaing on its main title. But yeah, probably Bravely Default is not going to move a lot of units being a niche title that almost no one but otaku know.
I don't think it's too early given that it's coming out in two months. By now the most retailers will probably have already decided how much they want to order. Planning the release of a title is a long term process and not something you can suddenly change in the last moment. If they haven't shown any interest in seriously marketing the game up to now, I see no reason why that would suddenly change in 1-2 months.
As much as the game seems to pander towards the qualities of "classic FF" which is appealing to certain hardcore fans, I do wonder if the audience at large really cares about it anymore. FF3 sold really well on the DS, but it's been a huge slide ever since then. Despite being a better game with much more effort put into it, FF4 sold much less, and 4WoL sold even less. If the slide continues, BD will probably do even less (I expect about 100-150k tops at this point).
Really I never understood why Se pushes the marketing on some teams and for other teams does almost nothing.
I mean I am pretty sure bravely could find some success on 3ds given the jrpg roaster on 3ds (nothing groundbreaking on the orizon till smt iv) and its pretty graphics alone yet like duckroll wrote it seems Se isn't really pushing it.
I mean I am pretty sure bravely could find some success on 3ds given the jrpg roaster on 3ds (nothing groundbreaking on the orizon till smt iv) and its pretty graphics alone yet like duckroll wrote it seems Se isn't really pushing it.
electroplankton
Banned
Final Fantasy IV on DS was also the third release (even though a remake), just two years after the porting on GBA; Final Fantasy III was, instead, the first remake, or better the first re-release of the game after the original one. The 4 Heroes of Light, instead, came in an overcrowded environment, after Dragon Quest IX and before Dragon Quest VI, when DS was having something like a jRPG every two weeks.
Btw, Bravely Default seems far better promoted than The 4 Heroes of Light (it made an appearance in every Nintendo Direct, limited edition, demo every two months... The 4 Heroes of Light was announced and then released in 4 months! Announced in July 2009 and released in October 2009). Do we know whether stores are promoting the game? I saw an ads (I also posted in the other thread), but I'm not in Japan so who knows.
I don't really think it's as easy as you make it sound. JRPGs are not an easy sell if we're talking about something beyond 200k. I think a lot of people over-estimate the JRPG market in Japan because certain games happen to do really well from time to time. Honestly, if S-E wants to market a successful RPG they would actually have better luck pandering much more to the anime crowd in Japan with more modern designs and a famous voice cast. Going retro classic RPG style basically means they don't expect a ton of sales to begin with imo.
About RPGs, I really think a Xenoblade 2 on 3DS could do much more than 200k, due to the critical success of the first, which had some pretty legs for being an RPG ( wasn't it at over 170k last year despite a 70k beginning for one of the trackers? ), so people liked it, there's been word of mouth and a sequel on a much healtier platform would do better. Especially if Nintendo promotes it better.
Define success, of course it wont sell as much as ToX on Ps3 - but its also wont sell less than 100k as some people in this thread are suggesting. Hype and marketing for a classic JRPG ,which isnt labeled FF or DQ seems about right and its difficult to measure the impact of demos and Nintendo direct appearances have had on it mind-share. Doubt that it`ll under perform.
Why would i want Xenoblade 2 3DS, when i can have Xenoblade 2 on WiiU ? 3DS is cool and all, but playing on a handheld after experiencing Xenoblade and its large areas on a TV would be like the biggest downgrade ever. DONOTWANT :-/
300000/500000.....
Given the budget....I think Se should try to develop something like type 0 on 3ds and certain something with a shorter development cycle.
But they should try to push something like bravely IMHO better than so far. To compare their efforts on type 0 and this ...
You're mean, very very mean.
About Bravely Default instead: it's tricky. Yes, FF remakes / Classic style games showed a downward trend, demos could be considered a niche way of promotion...but seriously, I don't know. I think it could do 200k like 4 Warriors of Light, considering it seems Square cares much more about BD than 4WoL ( not saying it won't be released near to a very big SE release, considering right now there's nothing for the last two months from them, aside Black Ops 2, and probably there should be a big Holiday release). But it could do lower than 150k too. It depends on how the game will be promoted near the release.
@cw_sasuke: Monolith is working on both the consoles, so Xeno 2 on 3DS and a completely new and amazing adventure on Wii U. Everyone wins XD
electroplankton
Banned
What is the exact BD's budget? Lol
Btw, demos are a great way to promote a game, in particular if you have 4 of them. Nintendo said that the majority of 3DS owners had an access to the eShop, so at least 3 mln people may have seen that at least the game exists. But yeah, niche game, blabla, 50k.
BishopLamont
Banned
Bahahaha.
Didn't this sound stupid in your head before typing it? Really? Serious question (I don't know what's worse: this or your comgnet charts
).Fixed for maximum lol
You're mean, very very mean.
@cw_sasuke: Monolith is working on both the consoles, so Xeno 2 on 3DS and a completely new and amazing adventure on Wii U. Everyone wins XD
No I'm not being mean. The people who made Xenoblade are all working on the WiiU in Tokyo. None of them will be working on the 3DS project in Kyoto.
What about all the demos, limited editions and constant news and it's not even releasing for 2 months!
gamergirly
Member
I used to think that FF7 remake would be more than a cash in but chances are that SE will fuck the game up and make us realize that they should have never touched the game again
metalslimer
Member
Hahaha
A new jrpg of the quality of xenoblade would make me buy a wii u a second later.
Best jrpg in a while (from ffxii and chrono cross) and best game from Takahashi's team.
Let's hope for it
I already explained why it's not "real" marketing. Stuff like this is effective for getting people interested in 100k range titles, but it doesn't indicate anything close to the sort of 200-300k title some people seem to expect for this.
electroplankton
Banned
It's marketing. Maybe it's not expensive marketing, or marketing aimed at a million units, but it's marketing.
BishopLamont
Banned
BD:FF will be the first new high quality JRPG for the 3DS from a third party, I think 300k will be achievable if SE does it right. The games been on the 3DS reel since its launch, I don't think exposure to the 3DS audience will be a problem. Whether SE can convince players to buy it first week or not rather than wait for the second hand copies, depends on how good the game actually is, getting good reviews and word of mouth being spread quickly.
The problems KH faced far outweigh the problems BD:FF has, despite KH having a stronger brand. Realistically the game will do about 100k like most new handheld JRPGS before hand, but there is potential here. Its all up to SE.
The problems KH faced far outweigh the problems BD:FF has, despite KH having a stronger brand. Realistically the game will do about 100k like most new handheld JRPGS before hand, but there is potential here. Its all up to SE.
Its still a completely new (classic) SE J-RPG for the hottest system right now in Japan. The market is screwed if 100k would be the goal for such a title - if even 4WoL with all its flaws could sell at least double as much.
I never said it's not marketing, I said it's not "real" marketing which indicates a strong push. The sort of "marketing" it gets are pretty much all arranged by the producer himself trying to engage an audience however he can. Probably because he already knows there is no real marketing budget for the game. The big Smartphone games released by S-E lately follow the same marketing trend, where the producer is pushing it using the internet and little else. I'm just pointing out that S-E as a whole is really not pushing the game.
Being a classic JRPG works against it though. 100k is the goal for most of these titles. Look at Imageepoch! Lol.
Sammy Samusu
Member
How was the marketing for Radiata Stories?
MDX posted this in the OT, might be relevant here:
Square Enix doubles the number of DQX servers, working to expand individual server capacity.
Square Enix doubles the number of DQX servers, working to expand individual server capacity.
Players in the OT have been reporting overcrowding problems including not being able to log in, chat problems, getting dropped while catching a train to a new zone, etc.
I wonder how they make their decisions for many of the mid to low Nintendo titles then, which get anounced and released 1 month later.
I agree with most of what you say, from trends regarding FF to general momentum this specific title has, but on the other hand demos need to be play tested too and it's not exactly cheap to make 4+ demos (even short ones), so I could imagine that they'll support it decently with commercials when the time comes.
150 000 as your upper limit also wouldn't be far off from 4WOL. Again, I'm not even thinking it will sell this much or more, I simply say we don't know yet. KI:U had an increase of pre-orders after the perfect Famitsu score. BD being in the range it is, pre-orders could change sales outlook greatly even at the last moment.
Cool. Denpa Ningen no RPG also did this, though it was DD anyway.
The last demo was a longer one also, full dungeon with 3 bosses. And the new one will actually be the 6th one, counting the demo from last year before this numbered series of demos.
test_account
XP-39C²
If people are curious about server activity for DQX, it can be seen here:
http://hiroba.dqx.jp/sc/serverstatus
I dont know all the translation, but:
こんでる = crowded/full(?)
ふつう = normal
すいてる = not crowded
http://hiroba.dqx.jp/sc/serverstatus
I dont know all the translation, but:
こんでる = crowded/full(?)
ふつう = normal
すいてる = not crowded
Not really sure. I know that the 3DS games have some Mii character in it, but i'm not sure if that is the only thing.
Yeah, if the presentation is very different, one version will most likely be more popular than the other indeed.
I dont see anything wrong with the Comgnet charts as long as people know what it is about. I remember there were impressions posted in the MC threads before from different blogs, covering like one store only, and that was ok.Didn't this sound stupid in your head before typing it? Really? Serious question (I don't know what's worse: this or your comgnet charts
electroplankton
Banned
By saying it's not "real" marketing implies you're assuming it's not marketing at all. There exist high-profile marketing, mid-profile marketing, low-profile marketing, but not real marketing, and not-real marketing.
What's "real" marketing for you? Just askin'.
I do think Bravely Default is getting a way better push than iOS product; demos are not something using the Internet, and something which is not really cheap to make, in particular in this case, with 4 demos (+ one following the Nintendo conference). The game got a lot of coverage in magazines, and it's getting ads in stores as I pointed out in the specific thread.
Sure, it's not getting the attention a mainline Final Fantasy usualle have, but it's already more pushed than The 4 Heroes of Light, which was announced in July, and released in October.
I'm not interested in arguing the semantics for terms I choose to use. I'm only interested in expressing my opinion on how a game is being promoted and what that means for the sales. I think I've made it pretty clear what my position is and why I feel that way. There's no need to argue over what "real" marketing means to me. I think the game isn't being pushed much and 200-300k is not realistic to expect for the game. That's all we need to focus on.
electroplankton
Banned
Then choose better terms.
That's why I asked you what is "real" marketing for you, and how are stores pushing the game, and how's the effort compared to, let's say, The 4 Heroes of Light.
Is not a bit earlier for TV ads and billboards?
Btw, Square Enix did make a cross media attempt to gain attention, with the soundtrack
And I believe there are some other degrees in between major and minor marketing.
For this kind of title i also dont see how SE could or should push it bigger in terms of marketing - wouldnt be suprised if the title will also have a LE 3DS console as other titles before. SE clearly lost its mind if this title got greenlighted with expectation of just selling about 100k.
Why? It works for what I want to say. It's not like you don't understand what I'm saying, if you want to cling on to the terms I use, I have no interest in furthering that discussion, that's all I'm saying.
Sammy Samusu
Member
By the way, DQX could net a 40/40 tonight, who is excited!!!
electroplankton
Banned
Sure, I got what you were saying, but simply make the distinction between real and not-real marketing did not fit well in the discussion. I do think Bravely Default won't get a really big push from Square Enix, like they did for mainline Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest, neither the same Type-0 and Dragon Quest remakes had. But I also think that they're pushing it fairly well, better than average jRPG they had in the last few years, such as Nier, The World Ends With You, Sigma Harmonics, and the like, or other softco had, such as Imageepoch, Namco Bandai and Sega.
And since you were pretty sure about the fact that Bravely Default won't get any "real" marketing at all, I sincerely asked you if you know how's being promoted in stores, if we know something about TV ads (and if it's too late to think about them), and so on, just to complete the framework, because if you ask me, five demos are a sign of a quite nice effort in promoting the game.
slaughterking
Member
omigawd
electroplankton
Banned
How could they properly review a MMORPG in a week, by the way?! Did they have specific servers?
slaughterking
Member
Famitsu properly reviewing games. You are funny.
test_account
XP-39C²
One point for each server? =) (there are now 40 DQX servers up and running).
electroplankton
Banned
It was an honest question: MMORPG are quite difficult to review just after the launch, I think. I was asking starting from DQX but referring also to other titles in the genre.
I don't get it.