I don't see the Wii U selling all that well when their first party titles hit. The narrative seems to be that people buy Nintendo consoles to play Nintendo games.....just not these current Nintendo games I guess. But they WILL buy the consoles for another 3d Mario game or another Metroid? It could make sense if there would be a nice back log of games to play by the time these new games came out. But Nintendo is releasing NOTHING. So the assumption is that 3d Mario, who had two recent outings on Wii, Mario Kart, and Pikmin will move consoles? Is the general gaming public that hungry for these games? Will they spend upwards of 400 bucks to play a 3d Mario when they can spend that much money to buy a next gen machine with new ips or an xbox 360/ps3/wii which has a million games? I think the third party situation is really going to hurt Nintendo this time.
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Media Create Sales: Week 4, 2013 (Jan 21 - Jan 27)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
lol, Europe had Star Fox Adventures and Mario Party 4 as its first holiday lineup. Not exactly the way you want to support a system.
test_account
XP-39C²
Are those games just dated for 2013, or are they coming in the 2nd half of 2013 (i.e, after Monster Hunter 4)?
I ment regarding what you said earlier ("next games are also appealing to the existing userbase."). If both things are appealing as you mentioned, that is a positive thing. It doesnt necessarily means that sales will be very high, but it is at least a positive thing if both things are appealing, and it gives a better chance of sales if there was hardly any appeal at all.
metalslimer
Member
If the problem with the GC was drought then Wii U isn't looking any better. Even if we ignore the upcoming launches of the other two the 3DS alone is going to get even stronger this year which will not be good for a floundering wii U. For people asking me how I would have launched the 3DS/Wii U, that's a completely loaded question because I am not the CEO of a multibillion dollar company. Do people really think that the 3DS launch and the Wii U launch was the best Nintendo could do? That Nintendo wouldn't have lost nearly as much money if they launched at 199 for the 3DS and at least had OoT at launch? That Nintendo would have been preparing for the challenges of HD development during the Wii? That they would have a much more consistent schedule this year after taking every internal studio off the wii besides 2 teams in 2010? I'm not saying Iwata deserves to be gone here, but if the Wii U doesn't turn around than yes I think it's time for some upper level management to go. For people saying who would replace Iwata? Who in the world thought Iwata would replace Yamauchi a few years before he retired?
Yes, Iwata did great things during the Wii/DS era for Nintendo, but the current Nintendo I'm seeing is just not forward thinking and no that has nothing to do with the Wii U hardware specs.
Yes, Iwata did great things during the Wii/DS era for Nintendo, but the current Nintendo I'm seeing is just not forward thinking and no that has nothing to do with the Wii U hardware specs.
perfectchaos007
Member
Poor WiiU. I hope sales pick up because I own one and want more 3rd parties to get on board. With that said, is it time for a ____ will save the WiiU chalkboard? I guess start it off with Pikmin 3.
Nintendo just updated their 3DS Brain Training page with some data analyzing the performance of players depending on age.
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/3ds/asrj/report/index.html
It says the data is from training data transmitted 2 months after release, and that there were 46000 participants, 15910 of which played for more than 10 days.
From a sales-age perspective the breakdown by age (bottom half of the report) seems pretty interesting: assuming that the online transfer described here was easy enough for elderly players to handle, there's a significant dropoff on the playerbase aged 50+. 997 players 50-60, 414 60+ out of 16,000 total. Poor sales performance was definitely a hint, but this seems to be pretty conclusive data from Nintendo that they couldn't get the elderly population to buy their system for the second time.
I'm getting pretty sick of the endless WiiU doomed talk on the MC threads, so let's talk about 3DoomedS (for the elderly). What should Nintendo do to regain this generation of customers, or are they truly irrelevant considering they wouldn't have bought "real" games anyway, not to mention the fact that 3DS already has a commanding marketshare and mindshare without them?
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/3ds/asrj/report/index.html
It says the data is from training data transmitted 2 months after release, and that there were 46000 participants, 15910 of which played for more than 10 days.
From a sales-age perspective the breakdown by age (bottom half of the report) seems pretty interesting: assuming that the online transfer described here was easy enough for elderly players to handle, there's a significant dropoff on the playerbase aged 50+. 997 players 50-60, 414 60+ out of 16,000 total. Poor sales performance was definitely a hint, but this seems to be pretty conclusive data from Nintendo that they couldn't get the elderly population to buy their system for the second time.
I'm getting pretty sick of the endless WiiU doomed talk on the MC threads, so let's talk about 3DoomedS (for the elderly). What should Nintendo do to regain this generation of customers, or are they truly irrelevant considering they wouldn't have bought "real" games anyway, not to mention the fact that 3DS already has a commanding marketshare and mindshare without them?
What you and sphinx fail to grasp is that, out of all of these, only the bolded were launch games. NSMBU is a system seller.
Moor-Angol
Banned
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NextRev: Chuushoukigyou Shindanshi Shiken 2
San Goku Shi 12
Viking Poipoi!!
02/14
Sakura-Sou no Pet na Kanojo
Silent Hill: Book of Memories
02/21
Ciel Nosurge RE:Incarnation
NextRev: Sharoushi Shiken
02/28
Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2 Plus
Phantasy Star Online 2
Senran Kagura Shinovi Versus: Otome Shoujotachi no Shoumei
03/07
Soul Sacrifice
Tales of Hearts R
03/14
Nobunaga no Yabou: Tendou with Power-Up Kit (30th Anniversary Campaign Pack)
Steins;Gate
Steins;Gate Double Pack
Steins;Gate: Hiyoku Renri no Darling
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One Piece: Kaizoku Musou 2
Pro Yakyuu Spirits 2013
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Oboro Muramasa
Sei Madou Monogatari
04/25
Kajiri Kamui Kagura: Akebono no Hikari
Meikyuu Cross Blood: Infinity
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05/30
Haiyore! Nyaruko-San: Nafushigatai Game no You na Mono
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01/31
Shin Hokuto Musou
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Tank! Tank! Tank!
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Game & Wario
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DragonSworne
Banned
It really is amazing how many games PSV is getting considering it has only sold 3.5 million units world wide.
Third party bias is strong.
metalslimer
Member
Or Sony even with the horrendous state of Vita is actively going out and getting developers to make something for Vita. Most of that is extremely niche anyway
ShockingAlberto
Member
I don't think anyone has any illusion of Pikmin 3 saving anything but boredom
Considering that they're the type of games that have long legs, I think Nintendo Land and New Super Mario Bros U have already done their system-selling job. The problem is the huge lull of software now, and probably bad marketing.
It's certainly a possibility, but I think it's too early to declare the Wii U to be a repeat of the GameCube. Melee was Gamecube's only million-seller. The Wii had fourteen. Even without the Wii series, that's still eight. I find it hard to believe that the effects of that will magically disappear.
Which isn't to say that the Wii U will definitely succeed or that there's any known or unknown game that can sell it, but I think we need to see whether the presence of releases will have an effect to make a reasonable judgement.
Since the tie ratio is basically a minimum I actually agree with you. If no one is interested I will stop posting that.
With the Top 10 software I don't see the problem. Unless the top 20 numbers are available for all of late 2006 and 2007 somewhere I don't know of, the top 10 is all that can be clearly represented for all of those systems week by week.
I realize that only displaying a top 10 ignores titles with lesser sales, but it seems to mostly affect consoles that already have more software sales. If that additional bias is the problem, would you like to me to represent it better?
As you can see from the last chart I posted, the Vita and PS3 would not have benefit for most weeks even if I had the numbers for the top 20. In the PS3's case, there were some weeks in which it had nothing in the top 30. On the other hand, Nintendo Land sales aren't represented for some weeks, nor are most sales for Twilight Princess. 3DS is probably the most underepresented.
It's certainly a possibility, but I think it's too early to declare the Wii U to be a repeat of the GameCube. Melee was Gamecube's only million-seller. The Wii had fourteen. Even without the Wii series, that's still eight. I find it hard to believe that the effects of that will magically disappear.
Which isn't to say that the Wii U will definitely succeed or that there's any known or unknown game that can sell it, but I think we need to see whether the presence of releases will have an effect to make a reasonable judgement.
Since the tie ratio is basically a minimum I actually agree with you. If no one is interested I will stop posting that.
With the Top 10 software I don't see the problem. Unless the top 20 numbers are available for all of late 2006 and 2007 somewhere I don't know of, the top 10 is all that can be clearly represented for all of those systems week by week.
I realize that only displaying a top 10 ignores titles with lesser sales, but it seems to mostly affect consoles that already have more software sales. If that additional bias is the problem, would you like to me to represent it better?
As you can see from the last chart I posted, the Vita and PS3 would not have benefit for most weeks even if I had the numbers for the top 20. In the PS3's case, there were some weeks in which it had nothing in the top 30. On the other hand, Nintendo Land sales aren't represented for some weeks, nor are most sales for Twilight Princess. 3DS is probably the most underepresented.
perfectchaos007
Member
Well if I remember correctly "Lair" was the first game on the PS3 chalkboard, and I don't think anyone expected that game to actually spur sales. Pikmin 3 has a greater chance than Lair to boost sales
The statement you quoted was not wrong even by your standard. With those 3 titles, Wii U would have heavy hitters that VITA never had or have.
Sometimes I just think you want to find positive things about VITA out of nothing. Basically you are insisting there is a market for VITA, no matter how small it is, since there are still people buying it. (And the original arguement was tat having two games selling 25K this week means there is a market for VITA) It's the same kind of point you insisted last year when talking about VITA to have any kind of turn around. You insisted there is always a chance for it to happen no matter how small that chance is because "anything can happen".
pieatorium
Member
Remember Haze? yeah that was a thing too lol.
early days of PS3 were some hilariously crazy times.
InsaneZero
Member
Let's not really kid ourselves, though. We're really not going to see much change in the decline until the second half of 2013, if Nintendo really does pull off what they stated in their investor meeting.
perfectchaos007
Member
Nintendo overestimated the WiiU in their original forecast, who's to say they didn't do the same again? Just one new first party title between now until the end of March ( at least in the USA ) and not even I would think Lego City Stories is chalkboard worthy. Pikmin 3 will probably be the next game I buy for WiiU and that may not be out until June
I dunno, the investor's meeting gave me the impression they're even LESS prepared for the incoming competition than I had initially thought. I wouldn't be surprised if MK, 3DMario, and Retro's game are all 2014 titles and Pikmin 3 slips into the holiday spot.
I'm trying to refrain from making any definitive judgments until E3 but they haven't done much to spur confidence. I know I'm going to be happy with what I get to play this year on the thing but I have doubts the market at large will feel the same way.
metalslimer
Member
Gives me the chills thinking the disaster worldwide that would be. I refuse to believe Mario Kart or the next 3d mario won't be out before the holidays. At the very worst I could see Yoshi Yarn being the holiday title.
perfectchaos007
Member
That would be a TERRIBLE strategy. I see the idea behind it, which is to basically pretend the system doesn't exist until the PS4/720 drops and thats when they simultaneously release all the AAA titles they have been developing just to combat the competitions offerings. In theory it sounds like a sound strategy, but reviving a dead console is 10X tougher than giving a living console momentum. Also, they would piss off the early adopter and thus more loyal fanbase in the process which is never a good idea. It would be a travesty if the only AAA title Nintendo releases for WiiU all year is Pikmin 3.
There's no way they could that unprepared. If that were the case I would honestly expect them to start pulling in staff from other parts of Nintendo to finish at least one of those games.
bigtroyjon
Member
It's not a strategy, it's them struggling with HD game development.
perfectchaos007
Member
And considering only a couple of first party titles released on the Wii in the past 2 years, that's extremely unacceptable. Nintendo's first party studios that develop console games have been dragging their feet so slowly I'm inclined to believe they were stuck in quicksand.
lwilliams3
Member
Yes, and I doubt that Nintendo would do that. From what they are saying, it sounds like games will pick up in the spring (March), will be even better during the second-half of the year (around E3), and strong during the fall (in time for the competition.. unless one or both of them are delayed).
bigtroyjon
Member
Same thing happened with pretty much every publisher and developer this gen. I don't know why Nintendo would be any different. Aside from that, the Wii isn't their only platform, they released a bunch of 3DS games.
Not to mention retailers who will be going colder on it if it doesn't sell.
Yeah it is looking and sounding awful. Especially because they are not even mentioning anything about third party games in their briefing. If that was going well they'd be talking it up.
Even though I want to see software for my Wii U, the bullshit they talked when they talked about core gamers and it being a console for everyone would not make me unhappy if they really suffered this gen.
Yeah, 3DS part two all over again.
If 3D Mario AND Mario Kart aren't out this holiday season then I don't see what else could give them momentum in the onslaught of the other systems.
Yoshi
Headmaster of Console Warrior Jugendstrafanstalt
Is this really true? I know I have bought a Wii U at launch because Mario was there (I would had bought it for many other possible games like Pikmin 3, too, but out of the games that were there, it was Mario), had Mario been missing and everything else been in place, I wouldn't have bought a Wii U until the release of Rayman Legends. I'm sure Wii U would have fared even worse had Mario not been there at launch.
Yeah it's like they are amateurs.
speaking of japan, if it were a system seller, WiiU would be pretty stable around 20k.
If WiiU goes under 10k and NSMBU under 5k, the answer to your question is yes, no matter how you look at it.
doesn't mean that a mario game doesn't matter, it just means people need more incentives, aka more games.
60% of the WiiU userbase bought NSMBU and it´s the best selling WiiU game for some weeks now to say it isn´t a system seller is comical. In the long run it will outsell any PS3 game, but I doubt you would argue that PS3 didn´t have any system sellers. Looking at past charts the only games that actually sell WiiU systems are NSMBU and Nintendoland and to a far lesser extent MHTri, the other software is negligable in this matter. When the library is starting to shape up starting 2Q. both games NSMBU and NL will still be among the best selling titles. I also agree that the timing of both NSMB2 and NSMBU releases weren´t of any help but this only looking at it short term, in the long run this won´t be a problem, because both games will sell some million copies in Japan alone.
shinra-bansho
Member
Having a high attach rate doesn't necessarily mean a software title is a "system seller."
There's a distinction between a title that people will buy a system specifically for and a title that people pick-up along with the purchase of the system.
The former is actually exceedingly rare, imo.
There's a distinction between a title that people will buy a system specifically for and a title that people pick-up along with the purchase of the system.
The former is actually exceedingly rare, imo.
Awesome, ain't it. I wish the western release list was that large.
I think there aren't too many reasons left to buy a Wii U right now. If not even NSMBU appeals to you, why bother buying a Wii U?
What did 750k people bought WiiU for if not mainly for the obvious bestsellers NSMBU and Nintendoland? For its BluRay or DVD movie player?
NSMBU is a game that already outsold any PSV game by a factor of two. A system that still has a lead due to its 1 year headstart didn´t manage to to get a game selling much more than 250k. Also the most important is that NSMBU in 2 months already outsold the majority of PS3 games and definetely will outsell any PS3 game. Therefore PS3 didn´t have any system-sellers either yet? Or what are you trying to say?
pieatorium
Member
He is saying games like Uncharted Golden Abyss also had 50-60%+ attach rates (for the west at least) but it is consistently said that the Vita doesn't have any system sellers.
He is making the distinction that people are buying the system and picking up one of the only high profile games is different from people buying a system because of the game itself.
Not sure I agree because without these high profile games the sales would be considerably worse imo.
Uncharted always was and still is considered a system-seller for PSVs launch in western markets you are mixing up comments about PSV not having announced further strong system-sellers which has been true for more than a year so far. Neitherless NSMBU already outsold it with ease.
Talking about Japan, NSMBU has not only a high attach rate (life to date and in weekly sales performance) but also actually sold ca. 500k units so it´s not only a statistic game some people here like to imply but solid evidence of high sellthrough and the biggest difference it actually has big potential to continue selling well. And again, it will outsell any PS3 game in Japan and right now 750k WiiUs have been sold mainly due to NSMBU.
metalslimer
Member
I doubt it outsells FF13.
FF13 is passable but it depends on Nintendo.
I´m sure it will. But let´s ignore this, when NSMBU passes the million mark in Japan, should it be considered a systemseller or not?
metalslimer
Member
I never disagreed it wasn't a system seller, but NSMB2 hasn't passed FF13 with a 10 million userbase and it is a much more healthy platform than Wii U will ever be.