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[beril]

You can underestimate whatever you want, but the Mario franchise you know. During the holiday season, the million bar will be easily broken and then it will keep selling for a lot of time. I would say 2 millions at least by the end of 2012 as minimum.

Depends on how much they manage to appeal to the 2D mario players. 2 million would be double what the Galaxy games did and far higher than Mario 64 did as well. I think it has a good chance of hitting one million this year though, but who knows how much further it can go after that and how long it will keep on selling

 

[Alrus]

Do we know how many copies Nintendo shipped of Mario 3D Land?

Maybe we'll get the shipment with Dengeki numbers.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

Great 3DS numbers and Uncharted 3 numbers. Actually i am surprised at the Uncharted 3 numbers. DAT Harrison Ford effect.

 

[Truth101]

Maybe we'll get the shipment with Dengeki numbers.

I'm just curious because yesterday there was a report from some large chain? not sure which, that they sold through 2 weeks of their predicted Mario 3D Land copies in 4 days.

So I was curious if the first week was supply constrained.

Guess will have to wait.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

Check Mario 64 (both versions) for a 3D title going beyond 1 mil. There's a big probability that 3D Land will sell much better than the Galaxy games.

The first Galaxy also passed a million and SMG2 is really really close.

 

[Michan]

Your DS numbers are way off man. At the end of 2005 DS was only at 5.6 and didn't reach even 14 million until the end of 2006 or even later. By the end of April it was a little over 7.6 million and for some reason the MC threads don't have much info but it probably was around 8.2 million the week the game launched with the massive hardware boost it received. So yeah if you're looking proportionally it did about the same but that really isn't a good way of thinking about these sorts of things. Most likely it will end up selling more like the 3D games than the 2D ones although probably a bit better. I'd say it'll end up somewhere between 1.5-2 million when all's said and done.

You're right, my numbers were off, but not by as much as you suggest. I used garaph for reference (forgetting to switch from day to date mode). http://garaph.info/shipmentcompare....mregion[5]=&systemregion[6]=&systemregion[7]=

DS LTD upon release of NSMB was about 12 million. You have not factored DS Lite into your numbers, which is why you're estimating 8.2 million.

 

[Mpl90]

This guy is almost orgasming over 3DS sales, maybe you can post the chart a couple more times?

Anyways, what COD4, MW2 and BLOPS first week's number? I'm wondering if it can sell 200 or 300k first week.

Immediatly... and not only first week.
COD4 was a slow burn seller.
It sold a lot after the first week. And, above all, with the re-release

[PS3] Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (Activision) - 20.692 / 113.957 / 18,16% 27/12/07
[PS3] Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare [Legendary Hits] (Square Enix) - 16.424 / 168.521 / 9,75% 10/09/09
[360] Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (Activision) - 25.901 / 54.752 / 47,31% 27/12/07


And this brought to these results with MW2

[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square Enix) - 117.391 / 249.068 / 47,13% 10/12/09
[360] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square Enix) - 60.517 / 86.904


The first COD published by SE.
The growth of the brand (and of the whole FPS audience in Japan) confirmed itself with Black Ops

[PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops (Subbed Version) (Square Enix) - 152.160 / 198.374 / 76,70% 18/11/10
[PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops (Dubbed Version) (Square Enix) - 29.273 / 40.683 / 71,95% 16/12/10
[360] Call of Duty: Black Ops (Subtitled Edition) (Square Enix) - 38.328 / 47.827 / 80,14% 18/11/10


Yeah, with BO Square decided to split the game in two versions: one with Japanese subs and one with Japanese voices. Consider these sales are updated to the end of last year, that the Dubbed version had only half December to sell, and you'll understand that the growth continued with BO.

MW3 Subbed Version can explode even to 250k FW, especially seeing two things.
First of all, the growth of the genre, now evidentiated by the awesome result of Battlefield.
And then, the great software health of PS3, that now is capable of selling a very good amount of games.
MHP3rd HD, Tales of Graces, Uncharted 3, Battlefield 3. These are only some of the most recent examples.

P.S. With love, the guy who was "orgasming" about 3DS sales XD

 

[Mpl90]

I'm just curious because yesterday there was a report from some large chain? not sure which, that they sold through 2 weeks of their predicted Mario 3D Land copies in 4 days.

So I was curious if the first week was supply constrained.

Guess will have to wait.

Yeah, Bowiez posted the Tsutaya report with a Google Translation not so distant from a competent translation
Dengeki will tell us the shipment as it always did.

 

[meppi]

3DS doesn't deserve those sales but that's pretty impressive.

You shtick is getting old fast.

 

[Kenka]

KENKA's Awesome race between past and present, to a bright future in 3D!
Week 44.

3DS - 145.721
NDS - 53.948

You know since log ago that I love you ! (Chris, I love you too, don't worry).


Amazing how we also got the Top 30 on Wednesday. 3DS numbers seem ok with so much building up to this explosion, these are really good numbers.
While I expected 100k more for Mario, I must say that I am definitely impressed by Battlefield and Uncharted. Just... wow

 

[Michan]

Well Naruto Shippuden is still charting. I thought Mario would have sent sales of both software and hardware to the 500K area.

That would be unprecedented for the first days of November. If it had done that to hardware, it would be the first game to ever do so. 343k software for a 3D Mario title is strong and, given the date, 145k hardware units is exceptional.

The first Galaxy also passed a million and SMG2 is really really close.

SMG2 is probably there already. The last data we have for it is about half a year old, which means it only needs to have sold about 800 units a week for it to have reached a million.

 

[Cipherr]

You shtick is getting old fast.

He is going to have a breakdown in December. He is already teetering on the edge, talking to himself trying to compare NSMB DS that launched with a 12m userbaser to SM3DL which launched on a 2m userbase.

Logic has already began to deteriorate. The bad ol' days are on their way back.

 

[airmangataosenai]

You're right, my numbers were off, but not by as much as you suggest. I used garaph for reference (forgetting to switch from day to date mode). http://garaph.info/shipmentcompare....mregion[5]=&systemregion[6]=&systemregion[7]=

DS LTD upon release of NSMB was about 12 million. You have not factored DS Lite into your numbers, which is why you're estimating 8.2 million.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=112920

Either your numbers are wrong or GAF's are. Combined sales for DS/DSL at the end of April 2006 were 2 million for the year, 7.6 million LTD. The system didn't sell over 4 million units in May....

 

[Mpl90]

Galaxy 2 will at 90% be in the top1000 relative to the 2011 with over a million of sales as LTD.

 

[Mpl90]

...But however, guys.
I don't understand the comparisons between 3D Land and NSMB at all.
One is a 3D Mario. One is a 2D Mario.
One has 3D in the name. One has the "Bros." factor in the name.
It's true that 3D Land looks a lot to the past, and above all has much more 2D content than Galaxy 2, which already had more 2D content than Galaxy... but it's always a 3D Mario without 3D in the name. Comparing it to the 2D series is not right.

 

[Bisnic]

I'm surprised that BF3 is in the top 3. I thought Japan hated FPS?

 

[Fantastical]

Why does anyone seriously respond to French? He's a hit-and-run poster.

 

[Michan]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=112920

Either your numbers are wrong or GAF's are. Combined sales for DS/DSL at the end of April 2006 were 2 million for the year, 7.6 million LTD. The system didn't sell over 4 million units in May....

Where are you getting that LTD number from? The numbers I've linked to are from Famitsu/Media Create.

Edit: Never mind, sorry about this. "DS" on garaph includes all revisions, including Lite, DSi, and LL – there is no separate "DS" category. I basically doubled DS Lite sales, for which I apologise.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

Great numbers for SM3DL. Don't even wanna guess what MH3G will do.

However I'm totally amazed at the Battlefield 3 sales.

 

[DaSorcerer7]

too soon?

 

[djplaeskool]

I'm surprised that BF3 is in the top 3. I thought Japan hated FPS?

Not at all, but you won't see most selling more than a couple hundred thousand units. There is definitely a market, and they respond well when they are given attention.
Blockbuster FPSs tend to hit hard thanks to targeted advertising and all-around appeal, but drop heavily.
It's much worse for X360 exclusives, due to limited market share (I think Gears 3 only got around 60k total).

 

[Durante]

To me it feels like Uncharted and BF3 are a bigger story in a sense than 3DS/SM3D. If you told me 5 years ago that a Nintendo handheld and Mario platformer would top the hardware and software charts in Japan I wouldn't have batted an eye. If you told me that 2 western (very western, more or less a first and a third person shooter) games would debut at around 125k in the same week I'd have been a lot more surprised.

 

[guek]

great sales all around...

cept for the wii. it still sold like complete butt despite having 8 games in the top 30

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Super Mario Sunshine - 280,610
Gamecube - 1,453,421
>19% attach rate

Doomed?

I was going to say something similar. But I've done something to make such comparisons easier in the future: the individual software pages on Garaph now show the hardware totals up through a game's first week.

Edit: Never mind, sorry about this. "DS" on garaph includes all revisions, including Lite, DSi, and LL – there is no separate "DS" category. I basically doubled DS Lite sales, for which I apologise.

Yeah, on the reports it's structured like "XXX DS, of which YYY is DSL and ZZZ is DSi."

 

[qq more]

too soon?

Where did this originate from? I've been wanting to know for a while.

 

[nextgeneration]

too soon?

Lol. Let's wait and see how mario and 3ds perform in the subsequent weeks all leading up to Christmas. If sales remain stellar and continue to rise, then let's bring out the gif.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

...But however, guys.
I don't understand the comparisons between 3D Land and NSMB at all.
One is a 3D Mario. One is a 2D Mario.
One has 3D in the name. One has the "Bros." factor in the name.
It's true that 3D Land looks a lot to the past, and above all has much more 2D content than Galaxy 2, which already had more 2D content than Galaxy... but it's always a 3D Mario without 3D in the name. Comparing it to the 2D series is not right.

If you consider the "Land" name a factor, then you should take note that Super Mario Land sold 4.18M. Super Mario Land 2 sold 2.68M.

 

[Michan]

...But however, guys.
I don't understand the comparisons between 3D Land and NSMB at all.
One is a 3D Mario. One is a 2D Mario.
One has 3D in the name. One has the "Bros." factor in the name.
It's true that 3D Land looks a lot to the past, and above all has much more 2D content than Galaxy 2, which already had more 2D content than Galaxy... but it's always a 3D Mario without 3D in the name. Comparing it to the 2D series is not right.

Nintendo is trying to sell it on the appeal of the NSMB, but without the "New" branding. The company only recently rediscovered how to sell 2D Marios with the release of NSMB, and they're working very hard to discover how to sell a 3D Mario.

You can draw many parallels between this and NSMB – including the nostalgia factor (SMB1/SMB3), the naming (SMB/SML), and the level design – but the thing that both titles have most in common is the marketing. The campaign for SM3DL is very much built upon the lessons learned from NSMB/NSMBW's: a lot of 2D gameplay is displayed, real people are seen playing, high-contrast colours and chirpy music engulf the commercials...

Nintendo is clearly hoping this will bring a lot of NSMB's success into 3D Mario titles, hence the comparisons.

 

[Mpl90]

Great numbers for SM3DL. Don't even wanna guess what MH3G will do.

However I'm totally amazed at the Battlefield 3 sales.

It all depends on the first shipment.
Capcom, don't be Crapcom this time.
About Batttlefield 3... yeah, it's impressive.
VERY impressive.

Consider this

[PS3] Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (Electronic Arts) - 32.608 / 67.709 / 48,16% 11/03/10
[360] Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (Electronic Arts) - 16.139 / 24.539 / 65,77% 11/03/10


Yeah, almost 100k better than BC2. But above all.

[PS1] FIFA: Road to World Cup '98 (Square EA) - 120.429 / 455.759 / 26,42% 14/05/98
[PS2] FIFA Soccer World Championship (Square EA) - 101.599 / 252.360 / 40,26% 25/05/00
[NDS] SimCity DS (Electronic Arts) - 50.632 / 193.826 / 26,12% 22/02/07
[NDS] SimCity DS 2: From the Past to the Future (Electronic Arts) - 46.446 / 159.245 / 29,17% 19/03/08
[PS2] 2002 FIFA World Cup (Square EA) - 24.210 / 143.122 / 16,92% 02/05/02
[PS2] Medal of Honor: Rising Sun (Electronic Arts) - 53.381 / 118.054 / 45,22% 04/12/03
[PS2] Project FIFA: World Cup (Square EA) - 40.862 / 106.139 / 38,50% 30/05/02
[NDS] MySims (Electronic Arts) - 14.370 / 97.901 / 14,68% 06/12/07

03./00. [PS3] Battlefield 3 <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2011.11.02} (¥7.665) - 123.379 / NEW
08./00. [360] Battlefield 3 <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2011.11.02} (¥7.665) - 27.723 / NEW

It won't be the king of EA LTD results in Japan, but to see again one of their games selling 100k+ in the first week, we have to go deeply back in time, when there was Square EA in Japan, and going back, we can see that this is the best debut for an EA game ever.

 

[manueldelalas]

To me it feels like Uncharted and BF3 are a bigger story in a sense than 3DS/SM3D. If you told me 5 years ago that a Nintendo handheld and Mario platformer would top the hardware and software charts in Japan I wouldn't have batted an eye. If you told me that 2 western (very western, more or less a first and a third person shooter) games would debut at around 125k in the same week I'd have been a lot more surprised.

Although the numbers are good, GTA is still the king of western games in Japan (as in dudebro western, because you also have DKC...)

 

[Mpl90]

@Cygnus and Michan: I know they are trying to sell it as something much nearer to the 2D ones than the other main 3D Mario, but it's still a 3D Mario.
But, however, I contest especially the usage of the comparison to say that SM3DLand did bad at its debut, when it is the best first week for a 3D Mario ever.
And I quote also Cygnus when he says that it has a possibility of doing more than one million, even just this year, but not because of the Land brand (which IMHO lost basically its selling power with the change to Wario Land), but because of, yes, the pronounced 2Dness of the marketing, but above all because of the upcoming 3DS hardware sales, which will boost also 3DS software.

 

[DiGiKerot]

13./03. [PS3] The Idolmaster 2 # <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2011.10.27} (¥7.980) - 10.721 / 76.233 (-84%)

Huh. Given they supposedly sold something like 89% of stock shipped last week, I kind of wonder how much stock is still currently floating around.

 

[Michan]

@Cygnus and Michan: I know they are trying to sell it as something much nearer to the 2D ones than the other main 3D Mario, but it's still a 3D Mario.
But, however, I contest especially the usage of the comparison to say that SM3DLand did bad at its debut, when it is the best first week for a 3D Mario ever.

It's not a 3D Mario as we know it, though. It's kind of a bridge title. It's extremely linear, very small (no sprawling sandbox-like open worlds), and very reliant on the 2d system (get to the flagpole, collect a super mushroom, don't fall off, and don't bump into an enemy as small Mario).

It's a 2D Mario in 3D.

 

[watershed]

Nice software numbers all around. I will be curious to see how 3d land holds up once MK and MH drop this holiday.

 

[Mpl90]

It's not a 3D Mario as we know it, though. It's kind of a bridge title. It's extremely linear, very small (no sprawling sandbox-like open worlds), and very reliant on the 2d system (get to the flagpole, collect a super mushroom, don't fall off, and don't bump into an enemy as small Mario).

It's a 2D Mario in 3D.

I know all of these things, I'm so interested in playing it.
It's just that, despite all the nostalgia factors, all the elements, it still is a 3D Mario game.
But yes, I would call it a bridge title as well, because it is with a lot of 2D elements.
Just I don't think that it can bring a lot of the 2D Mario userbase. So, I don't think we can expect NSMBWii's LTD numbers: I've always expected something like 2-2.5 millions of total sales in Japan, a sort of a mix between the 3D series and the New SMBS line.

 

[BurntPork]

Pretty sure NSMB did a lot better than this!

Now you're just grasping at straws. 3D Mario doesn't do as well as 2D Mario and never has, plus the obvious install base difference. Considering the factors working against it, this was a phenomenal opening. 3DS is doing well. Live with it.

 

[donny2112]

A lot better indeed, 900k. And it had a bigger effect on hardware sales.

That was during the shortage period. Nintendo sold what they shipped. They just shipped more for NSMB's launch. It was clearly seen at the time with the lower shipment a couple of weeks before.

 

[pramath]

Phenomenal numbers for the 3DS, Super Mario 3D Land, Uncharted 3 and Battlefield 3.
It'll be interesting to see how long the 3DS sustains this momentum.

 

[Spiegel]

Now you're just grasping at straws. 3D Mario doesn't do as well as 2D Mario and never has, plus the obvious install base difference. Considering the factors working against it, this was a phenomenal opening. 3DS is doing well. Live with it.

The only factor which can work against a Mario platformer is a high hardware price and Nintendo removed that barrier three months ago.

 

[Michan]

I know all of these things, I'm so interested in playing it.
It's just that, despite all the nostalgia factors, all the elements, it still is a 3D Mario game.
But yes, I would call it a bridge title as well, because it is with a lot of 2D elements.
Just I don't think that it can bring a lot of the 2D Mario userbase. So, I don't think we can expect NSMBWii's LTD numbers: I've always expected something like 2-2.5 millions of total sales in Japan, a sort of a mix between the 3D series and the New SMBS line.

It's really not a 3D Mario, though. Especially not in terms of the audience it's reaching to. It's something new and different. You cannot really compare this to NSMB, just as you cannot compare it to Galaxy.

Now, talking in terms of the last three to four console generations. If they released SMG 3DS or SM64 3DS (which they've kind of already done), it'll sell like a 3D Mario: ~1 million units lifetime. If they released NSMB3, it'll sell like a 2d Mario: >= 3 million units lifetime.

This is not a 3D – or 2D – Mario in both a design and sales perspective. It's just as bad comparing this to SM64/Galaxy as it is comparing it to NSMB... but then again, that's all we have. Hardware aside, it's underwhelming for a new 2D Mario, but incredible for a 3D Mario. Take a perspective, and argue it. But know that sales wise, this is most likely going to end up as something completely different.

 

[BurntPork]

great sales all around...

cept for the wii. it still sold like complete butt despite having 8 games in the top 30

Yeah. That proves to me that the Wii's decline is linked to market saturation.

 

[Anth0ny]

3DS- 145.271
Mario 3D Land- 343.492

God damn son.

The numbers when MH drops will be down right scary.



also, lol @ Battlefield 3. Surprisingly high numbers.

 

[donny2112]

Yeah. That proves to me that the Wii's decline is linked to market saturation.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

It's really not a 3D Mario, though. Especially not in terms of the audience it's reaching to. It's something new and different. You cannot really compare this to NSMB, just as you cannot compare it to Galaxy.

Now, talking in terms of the last three to four console generations. If they released SMG 3DS or SM64 3DS (which they've kind of already done), it'll sell like a 3D Mario: ~1 million units lifetime. If they released NSMB3, it'll sell like a 2d Mario: >= 3 million units lifetime.

This is not a 3D – or 2D – Mario in both a design and sales perspective. It's just as bad comparing this to SM64/Galaxy as it is comparing it to NSMB... but then again, that's all we have. Hardware aside, it's underwhelming for a new 2D Mario, but incredible for a 3D Mario. Take a perspective, and argue it. But know that sales wise, this is most likely going to end up as something completely different.

Listen to this man - it's interesting to compare the two different series to 3D Land, but ultimately this is a new beast. Not a traditional 2D title in the vein of NSMB, or a 3D adventure like SMG but something different. Will be interesting to see how it performs from here on out - will it follow the 3D pattern and drop gently before crawling to a million? Or will it start to get leggy and power on to 2 million+?

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Most days I'd have gone for "Kiteo, his eyes closed", but that's apt enough ;-)

 

[Mpl90]

It's really not a 3D Mario, though. Especially not in terms of the audience it's reaching to. It's something new and different. You cannot really compare this to NSMB, just as you cannot compare it to Galaxy.

Now, talking in terms of the last three to four console generations. If they released SMG 3DS or SM64 3DS (which they've kind of already done), it'll sell like a 3D Mario: ~1 million units lifetime. If they released NSMB3, it'll sell like a 2d Mario: >= 3 million units lifetime.

This is not a 3D – or 2D – Mario in both a design and sales perspective. It's just as bad comparing this to SM64/Galaxy as it is comparing it to NSMB... but then again, that's all we have. Hardware aside, it's underwhelming for a new 2D Mario, but incredible for a 3D Mario. Take a perspective, and argue it. But know that sales wise, this is most likely going to end up as something completely different.

No comparison with neither 3D nor 2D Marios? I'm okay with this opinion.
Effectively, even if in my opinion it's still a 3D Mario, it's possible to consider it as something different, so something impossible to compare with other games in the past, due to the mole of 2D content.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

Listen to this man - it's interesting to compare the two different series to 3D Land, but ultimately this is a new beast. Not a traditional 2D title in the vein of NSMB, or a 3D adventure like SMG but something different. Will be interesting to see how it performs from here on out - will it follow the 3D pattern and drop gently before crawling to a million? Or will it start to get leggy and power on to 2 million+?

While I see what you're saying and it could make a big difference. I recall this same arguement being made for Galaxy 1 and 2.

 

[BurntPork]

How was what I said crazy? If anything I stated the obvious.

 

[Infinite Justice]

Crazy 3ds numbers but makes sense since its mario.

WTF @ those Uncharted 3 numbers

 

[Chris1964]

How was what I said crazy? If anything I stated the obvious.

Lack of software has nothing to do with the fall of Wii? It looks saturated the last 2 years.