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NPD Sales Results for March 2014 [Up4: FFX/X-2 HD]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
SwiftDeath
Member
I would have bet on Ouya. Dat $99 price point and year head start
gundamkyoukai
Member
Sony last year remind of the PS1 and PS2 years when they were out for blood .
It also shows they still have what it takes after everyone write them off during the PS3 years .
It also shows they still have what it takes after everyone write them off during the PS3 years .
Birgitte2004
Member
Well, I wasn't betting on Microsoft.
I thought it was telling that the PS3 caught up to the 360 in spite of the overwhelming advantages the 360 had. I didn't understand why anyone thought that Microsoft was going to somehow improve on the 360's relative success, because there was no chance Sony was going to let MS have most of those advantages a second time. The rest was just rumors and hearsay.
As for EA, I believe that EA was completely in love with Microsoft's DRM, and in fact was the major 3rd party advocate and largely the reason why Microsoft kept saying that companies were demanding it. I'd believe in a heartbeat EA was demanding it, and offering all kinds of perks to MS for using it.
I thought it was telling that the PS3 caught up to the 360 in spite of the overwhelming advantages the 360 had. I didn't understand why anyone thought that Microsoft was going to somehow improve on the 360's relative success, because there was no chance Sony was going to let MS have most of those advantages a second time. The rest was just rumors and hearsay.
As for EA, I believe that EA was completely in love with Microsoft's DRM, and in fact was the major 3rd party advocate and largely the reason why Microsoft kept saying that companies were demanding it. I'd believe in a heartbeat EA was demanding it, and offering all kinds of perks to MS for using it.
SwiftDeath
Member
PS4 US LTD: 2,908,000
XB1 US LTD: 2,527,132
Difference of 381k in PS4's favor
PS4 is ahead by approximately 15%, Absolute gap is increasing
NA numbers aren't available although apparently the usual rule of thumb is that the Canadian market is 10% of the US market but that's quite dated
Asherdude
Member
Those people are out of touch with the gamer. Microsoft lost the hard core gamer with the 2013 reveal. And I feel for Spencer for having to pick up the XBO after his predecessor made such a horrible mess of things. I think that the XBO has the necessary power to compete with the PS4. But they'll have to unload that Win8 interface and Kinect to make it work. And I hope that Spencer has the guts to do it.
Majmun
Member
Thanks <3
Syphon Filter
Member
There is a chance still for MS in the u.s but they need to act fast.
I think a new interface might happen by next year or maybe a surprise fall update.
Aquamarine
Member
LTD as of November 2013:
1) Wii U - 1.62 million (+0.48 million from PS4, +0.71 million from XBO)
2) PS4 - 1.14 million (+0.23 million from XBO)
3) XBO - 0.91 million
LTD as of December 2013:
1) Wii U - 2.10 million (+0.10 million from PS4, +0.28 million from XBO)
2) PS4 - 2.00 million (+0.18 million from XBO)
3) XBO - 1.82 million
LTD as of January 2014:
1) PS4 - 2.27 million (+0.12 million from Wii U, +0.31 million from XBO)
2) Wii U - 2.15 million (+0.19 million from XBO)
3) XBO - 1.96 million
LTD as of February 2014:
1) PS4 - 2.54 million (+0.31 million from Wii U, +0.32 million from XBO)
2) Wii U - 2.23 million (+0.01 million from XBO)
3) XBO - 2.22 million
LTD as of March 2014:
1) PS4 - 2.91 million (+0.38 million from XBO, +0.61 million from Wii U)
2) XBO - 2.53 million (+0.23 million from Wii U)
3) Wii U - 2.30 million
Distilling the above information:
November: PS4 was +0.23 million from XBO
December: PS4 was +0.18 million from XBO
January: PS4 was +0.31 million from XBO
February: PS4 was +0.32 million from XBO
March: PS4 was +0.38 million from XBO
I was talking about before either reveal, when the systems were being developed and talks with publishers and developers were going on behind the scenes. Everyone's expectations certainly shifted after how the reveals played out.
SwiftDeath
Member
Clarkus Darkus
Member
As someone that was xbox the last 10 years, I can safely say when the ps4 was first revealed, I wanted it, When MS announced the X1 i didn't want one. First impressions was lasting.
Sony just came from nowhere with the ps4 and have took gamers like me away from Xbox, who when they reversed there policies it was already too late for me to care.
Sony just came from nowhere with the ps4 and have took gamers like me away from Xbox, who when they reversed there policies it was already too late for me to care.
Liabe Brave
Member
People mention the Chinese New Year production shutdown a lot, but in February it'd only be a factor in Japan. This is because of the long transit times by container ships leaving China. Units manufactured during the first week of a month don't arrive in the U.S. until the end of the month (and wouldn't arrive at east coast retail stores until another week after that). So the gap in Chinese production during the first two weeks of February wouldn't show up in America until the first half of March. This punches a giant hole in the exactitude of your "March should be higher, given February" hypothesis; see below for more detail on what I mean.
Here's the crux of the problem: your argument relies on a long and complex series of very precise numerical assumptions. Some of them you appear to invent based on what sounds probable to you, like the amount of "missed sales" from February; some you base on averages of historical data. Whatever the source, let me be clear that this is an admirable attempt to be reasonable and scientific, and I'm not saying your numbers are crazy.
What I'm saying is that some (variable) component of sales is inherently unpredictable. No matter how careful your calculations, no matter how grounded, it's courting folly to draw conclusions based on a comparison of reality with your counterfactual construction of what "should" have happened. Believe me, I'm called upon to do this sort of analysis frequently in my day job; people desperately want to know why the world has deviated from their prior projections. I always caution them about these kinds of retroactive overfitting. Ultimately we're talking about hundreds of thousands of individual buying decisions enacted by the preposterously complex bundles of urges of which humans are comprised. Statistical tools can offer remarkably powerful insight here...but they remain stubbornly probabilistic, and thus eminently fallible.
It absolutely can. The 360 is the second-best selling hardware of all time in the U.S. Exceeding it--even if by so little that you don't match the PS2--is unquestionably doing "very well". (Note that Wii muddies the waters a bit, since it sold far faster than 360 but then fizzled out quickly; but usual sales trajectories aren't like that.)
In this particular case, it's not just that Infamous is only one position above Titanfall in March. It's also that in February, Titanfall was at 7 for the month and Infamous at 40. Since those preorders from February are counted in March by NPD, Titanfall (7, then 6) doubling up Infamous (40, then 5) isn't a surprise at all.
Your Call of Duty example is far better. I'd therefore agree with you that as you move further down Amazon's list, the likelihood of differently-ordered NPD results rises, even over large gaps. (That is, #53 might actually get higher sales than #37, but #16 is very unlikely to get higher sales than #1.)
Unknown One
Member
I was betting on the Playstation.
As we've seen last generation, PS3 caught up due to EU. Microsoft doesn't have that kind of global presence for their console. US and UK was what carried the 360 the way it did.
As I've seen the rumors, I noticed that the PS4 was stronger and people in the rumor thread did a BOM estimate putting both console at a similar build price. There was rumors of the forced Kinect and DRM as well.
As we've seen last generation, PS3 caught up due to EU. Microsoft doesn't have that kind of global presence for their console. US and UK was what carried the 360 the way it did.
As I've seen the rumors, I noticed that the PS4 was stronger and people in the rumor thread did a BOM estimate putting both console at a similar build price. There was rumors of the forced Kinect and DRM as well.
Wait, what? The gap's only that big and yet everyone's acting like the Xbone is the original Xbox?
Yup. Everyone.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
I agree, however, what some people are taking issue with is when software as a whole shows down YoY every month and some are taking that as a declining industry. When it may be that digitial is filling that void. Of course we can't say for sure, only that it is to an extent. The only "proof" we have are store ratings but the percentage of people that leave ratings are unknown for each game. But we know digital sales are happening just not how much. Thus I don't think it is a fair assessment to say gaming is in a decline.
I do feel it is fair to discuss the ranking of games on NPD sans digital data, however, as you said.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Hyperbole is par for the internet man.
The way I look at it is a little more nuanced. MS was unequivocally the leader between the two in NA for the prior generation. For Sony to have any lead when MS made such impressive inroads in NA shows a metric shift in consumer preferences.
360 outsold PS3 by around 14-16 million units. This time around PS4 has the lead and just outsold One in the same month One had the first large exclusive release of the generation. I think this is only the beginning. I expect by June One to be in a very precarious position. With PS4 outselling it by a very sizable number that month.
We'll see though.
The Xbox is obviously doing well.
However it's behind in the USA which is it's major market. And it's hardly sold anything outside the USA.
When you look at worldwide numbers it's clear that the Xbox is not doing well when compared to PS4 sell through numbers. Xbox is still doing well compared to 360. But they won't like being in last place.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Yea, this. The fact it is in the lead at all in the US is a surprise to many, and it will only widen. Forget June, May is going to be a big month for PS4 with MLB, Transistor, and Watch Dogs and the corresponding bundle.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
AstroNut325
Member
Yup. I recall all developer confidence surveys and consumer surveys favoring the next MS system prior to E3 2013.
LiquidMetal14
hide your water-based mammals
Even the XB fanboys and Gameboy Advance hoodlums.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Very possible.
I kind of expect there to be holdover from Titanfall though. Next month should give us some idea of what effect the title has had.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
You the weird thing about that is the Wii U could possibly have a turn around with the right games and price. Maybe not in every territory, but maybe enough to keep it in second. Right now worldwide the Wii U is still ahead 1-2 million units I believe.
Ah, this brings me back to when GAF 404'd over the big GDDR5 nerd-gasm. Good times.
It's amazing how fast they turned around in just one year though. In Kaz we trust.
Titanfall is definitely still going to have legs, because it's still bundled. I don't think MS can even sell full-price vanilla XBOs anymore, they've been dropped so much.
farmerboy
Member
Came back in to say this, you are absolutely correct with this post. For me I think we all underestimated the power that the PlayStation brand still has, PS1 & 2 sold 100mil plus so there's obviously a great heritage there. Alot of us have great PlayStation memories.
And its not only the release of PS4 thats been almost flawless in its messaging and what not, but they really started to get it right in the latter 3rd of the ps3 lifecycle, they brought the games and have started to get the ecosystem right. PS+ has to be one of the best things about PlayStation right now, if not the best.
So all in all congrats to Sony. You've been really focused on the gamer and at the moment are reaping the rewards. It's still early days and hopefully Xbox gets it right, because we need healthy competition in this industry, but again, congrats Sony. Hopefully success in this segment can breed success in other areas of your business.
I wonder how Nintendo feels that it only took the PS4 two months to outsell the Wii U
if the xbox was ahead in europe by the same amount wouldnt the be bad for sony?
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Um, what?
Thunder Monkey
Banned
My worst projections for One have it exceeding 50 million units worldwide in six years. My best for WiiU have it topping at 15 million units in six years.
Predicated on MS not resting on their laurels and dropping price sometime in its first two years. WiiU is seeing a very menial growth over last year and I expect this to be one of it's best years. I see no way WiiU can maintain the lead this year. One in a single month in America has outsold what I expect WiiU to sell all quarter in the same region.
AstroNut325
Member
Hopefully like getting a swift kick to groin... But I doubt they have learned anything.I wonder how Nintendo feels that it only took the PS4 two months to outsell the Wii U
Oh I think they're learning something about the gaming market, but the lessons they're taking from it might not be what gamers want... (QOL)
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
I still think their next console is a hybrid system. Something portable but powerful enough to dock it and play on a big screen. They should just stop trying to court third parties, and have one piece of hardware to be a true Nintendo game delivery device. The only concession they should make for third parties is PC architecture.
Captain Tuttle
Member
No way, WiiU is done, put a fork in it.
I think that's the best possibility.
I'm just speculating about the systems beyond that, particularly if the QOL really takes off (or really bombs). Nintendo's in a strange place right now, and I get the sense that they're realizing that they cannot really count on their own dwindling devotees anymore.
I just wonder if the QOL stuff is them tipping their hand that their future isn't always in the traditional gaming business.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Too drastic a move methinks.
They have to do something, but what you are saying would literally remove two of their revenue streams. Home console hardware and software.
I think the most likely scenario is them consolidating their software lines. Their console playing most of the same software as their handheld. At higher resolutions with higher fidelity effects.
This would leave them with a software revenue stream and two distinct hardware revenue streams. With another separate QoL pillar.
This, even without any showing of the new consoles, we knew Microsoft wasn't going to benefit of a 1 year and $200 advantage this time. If they hasn't been able to beat Sony with it, what were their chance without it? The truth is the Xbox brand is yet too weak in too many places, too America-dependant to be the worldwide leader without very positive circumstances (I'm not saying it was impossible, just very unlikely).
Depends on what time-frame you're considering. Back in mid to late 2012, a lot of the rumors were indicating that the new Xbox was going to be releasing sooner than the PS4 and that it was going to be the more "beastly" of the two. It also seemed to have more developer backing/speculation. Sony was more of an enigma.
Sublyminal
Neo Member
It's sad to say but, MS, like Sony before them and Nintendo before them all let their arrogance get to them. Nintendo because of the SNES thought it was going to take over when the N64 hit, Sony's PS1 killed that idea. Then Sony thought that the PS3 was going to kill it because of PS2 numbers and lastly MS thought that since the 360 performed so well, that the One would just come in and kick butt.
IF these companies would learn to stop being so arrogant than maybe their products would actually succeed more. Arrogance combined with $5-600 price tags, turn the consumer off.
EU is Sony's strongest territory. If MS had a 300K lead in Europe, everyone would agree Playstation would be Vita level dead. Now reverse the situation. Sony has a 300K lead in MS's strongest territory, and it's only going to grow. That's extremely worrisome for MS, especially considering their most anticipated title until Halo didn't move the needle at all, and Sony has some very big guns coming up (TLoU, The Order, Watch Dogs/Destiny marketing deals).
Septimus Prime
Member
There's all that, plus the additional disadvantage of the One being saddled with Metro, which no one likes. It probably would have been a boon for the Xbone, had Windows 8 and Windows Phone taken off, but that most certainly did not happen.
Even without the price or time advantage, the 360 appealed much more to North American markets. The PS3 didn't even have the OS accessible from in a game or anything similar to achievements at launch. When the 360 released Microsoft was the most forward thinking of the two, greatly expanding online play and access to digital games. I think people really forget how monumental the machine was when it released and just how hard it was for Sony to catch up just in terms of services.
It is really hard to imagine killing that momentum so badly that a supply constrained piece of hardware will outsell your system even during the release of your biggest game of the year.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
Ah gotcha, I read it as you were thinking it was possible MS was ahead in Europe and that WW the consoles were even. lol
Déjà-vu
Edit: The N64 was also expensive, complicated game development and outdated (ROM cartridge). I hope we will not see the next GameCube.