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[Captain Smoker]

Sorry, what is ttm?

Trailing Twelve Months.

A summary of the latest twelve months.

Data points (x-axis):
1.) January 2014 - December 2015
2.) February 2014 - January 2015
3.) March 2014 - February 2015
4.) April 2014 - March 2015

etc.

 

[ninjablade]

Bayo 2 more than doubled those sales over the following 2 months iirc. It ended up outperforming the PS3 version of Bayo 1 and coming in close behind the 360 Bayo 1. Not exactly "very little" relatively although it was also the holidays while B1 was a Q1 launch.

70k for 4 days in selling 100k more after a year of being out is very little, especially since it was out near the holidays. point is 136k for 2 days is not impressive, it's ok at best, next month it could do anywhere from 50-100k nobody really knows.

 

[Plinko]

Where did sony sell 175 mill last gen??? If you are using PSP that is irrelevant two different markets and mobile has eaten mobile. Sony will sell more this gen then last in the HOME console market.

So are we at the point where we are eliminating handhelds as part of the gaming industry?

Because we've been through this before in these threads. Ignoring the effect handhelds have on the industry as a whole is foolish.

 

[Refreshment.01]

But where are the hardware numbers?

Curious about this, any estimates?

Also the only software numbers we have are the ones Grim posted? The 136K for Splatoon.

 

[KillerSloth]

Well it's mostly because of Halo 5 because that thing WILL sell loads of consoles. The other ones are just gravy. I mean look at what people looking to adopt an Xbone will be looking forward to... "Hmmm if I get an Xbone right now I'll have TR, Forza, Gears of War remake, and HALO 5 to play all in the last couple months of 2015."

And none of that will mean x1 will start winning by a landslide, i'll be surprised if it wins a month prior to OCT and then it will be close. The same can be said of ps4..Hmm if I get Bloodborne now, I can get UCC colection, Infamous, TLOU, UC4 next year ratchet and clank, No mans sky, etc..... That argument works both ways. People don't buy a console and ignore all other games except the fall?

You are also ignoring third parties are the main driver of hardware not first party games.

 

[timetokill]

As others have stated, contraction has already happened. Years ago with the loss of much of the Wii crowd, who didn't exist before the Wii. Contraction was the market returning to normal, and it's not a bad thing.

A great number of those people did exist before the Wii. They were the PS2 crowd.
I know people like to pretend that the PS2 was just a huge runaway hit with hardcore gamers, but nothing reaches those sales numbers without the casual audience. The Wii came along and took those consumers. The mobile took them. The issue is that they're not coming back to consoles.

Once again, that contraction.....not decline, contraction......is due to Nintendo. Not Sony. Not Microsoft. Their consoles are thriving. It's due to the millions of people who bought a Wii and would not have otherwise bought a console to begin with. These people, like my sister and my grandmother and my mother in law, did not move on to another console. The industry is not in 'decline'.

Oh hey, great, another magical scenario where Nintendo "doesn't count."

So are we at the point where we are eliminating handhelds as part of the gaming industry?

We're eliminating everything that doesn't make us feel good about the industry!

 

[KillerSloth]

So are we at the point where we are eliminating handhelds as part of the gaming industry?

We are talking home console market...the handheld market is a different market is it not? No one was talking anything outside ps3, 360, ps4 x1 wii and wii -u.

A great number of those people did exist before the Wii. They were the PS2 crowd.
I know people like to pretend that the PS2 was just a huge runaway hit with hardcore gamers, but nothing reaches those sales numbers without the casual audience. The Wii came along and took those consumers. The mobile took them. The issue is that they're not coming back to consoles.



Oh hey, great, another magical scenario where Nintendo "doesn't count."



We're eliminating everything that doesn't make us feel good about the industry!

No maybe follow the conversation? The entire conversation was the HOME CONSOLE MARKET.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Nobody ever said casuals were unique to the Wii. What's always said is that they were much more numerous in that system, and that's something hard to argue unless you want to rule out every evidence and how the system grew and collapsed afterwards.

I'm just going to quote myself from a different topic when people say we should just exclude the wiis sales numbers in their entirety.

Which - if that's the hypothesis you want to go with - you would need to calculate specifically what percentage of the Wii userbase that consisted of. Because it wasn't 100%.

You would then also need to calculate what percentage of the PS3 userbase bought a PS3 solely as a media player, and what percentage of the Xbox 360 userbase only bought titles like Just Dance, because lets not forget Kinect sold around 25 million units.
You would then need to go back to previous generations and reduce previous userbases by the amount of people who only bought things like SingStar or EyeToy.

Basically you would need to do a substantial amount of research work to make a point that ultimately doesn't matter, because large userbases sell large amounts of games and always have done, and nobody in the industry actually gives a shit who they sell to as long as they sell.

What you shouldn't do is just take all of last gens sales and then subtract the Wii because waggle lol

 

[idlewild_]

Curious about this, any estimates?

Also the only software numbers we have are the ones Grim posted? The 136K for Splatoon.

HW numbers are in this thread, about 10 pages ago (100 ppp)

 

[Captain Smoker]

Where did sony sell 175 mill last gen??? If you are using PSP that is irrelevant two different markets and mobile has eaten mobile. Sony will sell more this gen then last in the HOME console market.

They sold 134.550.000 home consoles since the launch of the PS3 (PS3+PS2), until the launch of the PS4.

They are now at 32.500.000 for PS4+PS3.

100.000.000 to go until PS5 launches.

 

[Plinko]

A great number of those people did exist before the Wii. They were the PS2 crowd.
I know people like to pretend that the PS2 was just a huge runaway hit with hardcore gamers, but nothing reaches those sales numbers without the casual audience. The Wii came along and took those consumers. The mobile took them. The issue is that they're not coming back to consoles.



Oh hey, great, another magical scenario where Nintendo "doesn't count."



We're eliminating everything that doesn't make us feel good about the industry!

People tend to ignore that the PS2 had a DVD player as a major selling point, which brought in casuals.

If you don't believe me about the casuals, take a look at the gigantic mountain of shovelware the PS2 had. It was Wii-like.

o maybe follow the conversation? The entire conversation was the HOME CONSOLE MARKET.

I thought the conversation was about the contraction of the industry as a whole because the graph Anihawk posted included all of them, handhelds included. If not, my mistake.

 

[KillerSloth]

They sold 134.550.000 home consoles since the launch of the PS3 (PS3+PS2), until the launch of the PS4.

They are now at 32.500.000 for PS4+PS3.

100.000.000 to go until PS5 launches.

You're combining the ps2 and ps3....yeah anything will lost there ps2 was a monster and ps3 lost half it's market share, to xbox. PS4 is still and will do way better then it's predecessor.

 

[Sandfox]

Poor in what way? By whom? What efforts?

All attempts to target that audience so far have been half baked and have failed to pull them in so I would call that a poor effort. I would argue that this started before the beginning of this gen as well. You can't just look at the market and say the issue is solely due to Nintendo.

 

[KillerSloth]

All attempts to target that audience so far have been half baked and have failed to pull them in so I would call that a poor effort. I would argue that this started before the beginning of this gen as well. You can't just look at the market and say the issue is solely due to Nintendo.

What attempts? What are you talking about? PS4 was built as a core game device day 1.....I don't see how they can just magically make something to make the wii casual crowd leave mobile and browser games to come back? The console market is just going back to normal. Don't see how they are even trying to get that market... You make it seem like it is an easy talk, if it was that easy someone would have done it...they are not coming back man.


Chasing that will lead to alienating your core fanbase and wasted money. They are never coming back.

 

[Gaiaknight]

So i went to gamestop today to pick up a 10 dollar eshop card for the smash dlc this weekend and i saw 2 people buying wii u and splatoon. Good for nintendo

 

[A Human Becoming]

RIP Aquamarine


Edit: To be clear, her posting here.

I miss Aqua. She was fun.

 

[Fdkn]

I'm just going to quote myself from a different topic when people say we should just exclude the wiis sales numbers in their entirety.

But I never said we should exclude 100M Wiis. We don't even need to exclude anything, just understand the context of most of those sales never coming back. And that doesn't mean the doom of anything.

 

[Refreshment.01]

HW numbers are in this thread, about 10 pages ago (100 ppp)

Thank you idlewild.

So seems the first two days of Splatoon were mostly with cuarrent owners. Is best to wait for next month results to correctly gauge the possible impact on hardware sales the game can have.

 

[mightynine]

What attempts? What are you talking about? PS4 was built as a core game device day 1.....I don't see how they can just magically make something to make the wii casual crowd leave mobile and browser games to come back? The console market is just going back to normal. Don't see how they are even trying to get that market... You make it seem like it is an easy talk, if it was that easy someone would have done it...they are not coming back man.

And - that's not a good thing, because if a market is shrinking, so possibly will the resources being put towards it (though I'd argue that's happening now).

The "console market going back to normal" means it's contracting. Why would companies support something that is not growing as it has in the past?

 

[KingSnake]

The UK is a really bad example for claiming that Splatoon is a hit. Yes it has held decently in the charts, but that has everything to do with the weakness of the release schedule and very little with any Splatoon strength. Splatoon's two week sales have at max been about 37K which is about one eight of the Witcher 3's confirmed physical sales of 275K in the same market and period. That Splatoon has held is due to the fact that the stuff below it is evergreen titles.

I suspect that the absence of competition will give Splatoon a decent chance of charting, but odds are it will be degrees of magnitude below Batman, and likely the Witcher 3.

Except that the UK example was not only about position but also about 2nd week drop compared to 1st week drop - 50%, which is a smaller drop than average (usually around 70-75%). So, while you seem to be upset about the position for whatever reason, that's not the argument here.

 

[Captain Smoker]

You're combining the ps2 and ps3....yeah anything will lost there ps2 was a monster and ps3 lost half it's market share, to xbox. PS4 is still and will do way better then it's predecessor.

That's the way it is.

And if PS4 is going to do "way better" than 90.000.000 units (PS3), let's see. It's not that easy, PS4 had a great start but it's very hard to maintain such a momentum.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

But I never said we should exclude 100M Wiis. We don't even need to exclude anything, just understand the context of most of those sales never coming back. And that doesn't mean the doom of anything.

My bad then. Ill leave it for the folks that are saying that.

 

[KillerSloth]

And - that's not a good thing, because if a market is shrinking, so possibly will the resources being put towards it (though I'd argue that's happening now).

The "console market going back to normal" means it's contracting. Why would companies support something that is not growing as it has in the past?

We all know it is contracting due to the wii audience, the ps4 and x1 are not though, that is what is really being discussed. The ps4 will out sell the ps3, that's not contraction for sony.

 

[Mister Megative]

A great number of those people did exist before the Wii. They were the PS2 crowd.
I know people like to pretend that the PS2 was just a huge runaway hit with hardcore gamers, but nothing reaches those sales numbers without the casual audience. The Wii came along and took those consumers. The mobile took them. The issue is that they're not coming back to consoles.



Oh hey, great, another magical scenario where Nintendo "doesn't count."



We're eliminating everything that doesn't make us feel good about the industry!

You're forgetting that the PS2 was a relatively cheap DVD player to many and nothing more. Many (of course not all) people, including friends of mine, bought one solely because it was a comparatively cheap DVD player. That alone sold a LOT of PS2s to people who weren't buying them for games.

No one is saying Nintendo doesn't count. Please find the quote where I stated that. I'm simply saying that the PS3/360 crowd didn't have many of those consumers to begin with. Of course they moved on to mobile.

 

[timetokill]

We all know it is contracting due to the wii audience, the ps4 and x1 are not though, that is what is really being discussed. The ps4 will out sell the ps3, that's not contraction for sony.

To accurately talk about "the market" you need to step outside your console wars bubble and see that a rising tide lifts all boats, and visa-versa.

If Sony sells 10M more than PS3 but everyone else is down, that's bad for everyone -- including Sony. I know that seems counter-intuitive but that's business.

Ask Polaroid how it felt becoming the big dog (and then basically the only dog) in a declining industry.

 

[Fdkn]

And - that's not a good thing, because if a market is shrinking, so possibly will the resources being put towards it (though I'd argue that's happening now).

The "console market going back to normal" means it's contracting. Why would companies support something that is not growing as it has in the past?

Because they are making money on it?

I genuinely question myself why people miss shovelware so much? shovelware is bigger than ever, its just in another devices.

Midtier took a big hit lastgen, but I think the bloom of digital is reverting most of that, if not entirely. Digital games are growing in scale and ambition and success stories are common, but yeah they aren't tracked on NPD so all those games, sales and money are ignored in this discussion.

 

[Mister Megative]

All attempts to target that audience so far have been half baked and have failed to pull them in so I would call that a poor effort. I would argue that this started before the beginning of this gen as well. You can't just look at the market and say the issue is solely due to Nintendo.

I'd argue companies like Sony have done very little to cater to the casual crowd this gen.

 

[Mister Megative]

Because they are making money on it?

I genuinely question myself why people miss shovelware so much? shovelware is bigger than ever, its just in another devices.

Midtier took a big hit lastgen, but I think the bloom of digital is reverting most of that, if not entirely. Digital games are growing in scale and ambition and success stories are common, but yeah they aren't tracked on NPD so all those games, sales and money are ignored in this discussion.

Makes me wonder when we'll see digital tracking. Digital downloads are slowly growing. I haven't bought a disc in a year.

 

[timetokill]

You're forgetting that the PS2 was a relatively cheap DVD player to many and nothing more. Many (of course not all) people, including friends of mine, bought one solely because it was a comparatively cheap DVD player. That alone sold a LOT of PS2s to people who weren't buying them for games.

No one is saying Nintendo doesn't count. Please find the quote where I stated that. I'm simply saying that the PS3/360 crowd didn't have many of those consumers to begin with. Of course they moved on to mobile.

I'm not forgetting that at all, actually. I'm not sure what would give you that idea. But that said, a TON of casual gamers also bought the system. That's not up for debate. It wasn't just DVD owners and hardcore gamers.

As for saying Nintendo doesn't count, check the quote I responded to in the first place:

Once again, that contraction.....not decline, contraction......is due to Nintendo. Not Sony. Not Microsoft. Their consoles are thriving. It's due to the millions of people who bought a Wii and would not have otherwise bought a console to begin with. These people, like my sister and my grandmother and my mother in law, did not move on to another console. The industry is not in 'decline'.

Basically you're throwing out Nintendo's numbers in an effort to say that there's no decline. That's not how you look at an industry or a market.

 

[Sterok]

Wouldn't Xbox also be contracting this gen due to the loss of the Wii casuals? It got a significant boost late in its life thanks to Kinect after all. PS4 is the only console that isn't feeling the loss of that market (for the moment at least). Which doesn't seem to be a great place for the industry if only one console can do great without the casuals.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

I genuinely question myself why people miss shovelware so much?

Because it represents diversity, and one mans shovelware is another mans rough diamond is another mans guilty pleasure.

Somewhat respected titles like Earth Defence Force or Onechanbara are shovelware products.

 

[Ty4on]

RIP Aquamarine


Edit: To be clear, her posting here.

Everybody misses Aqua

I saw the GAFism thread had green paint lines in it which made me a bit sad.

 

[Mister Megative]

I'm not forgetting that at all, actually. I'm not sure what would give you that idea. But that said, a TON of casual gamers also bought the system. That's not up for debate. It wasn't just DVD owners and hardcore gamers.

As for saying Nintendo doesn't count, check the quote I responded to in the first place:




Basically you're throwing out Nintendo's numbers in an effort to say that there's no decline. That's not how you look at an industry or a market.

I fully acknowledge there's contraction. I've never denied it. I'm simply saying its not a bad thing. People with a good grasp on the industry have said the same. In the end, my point is this: video game consoles are not going away. Not anytime soon.

 

[joecanada]

I didn't say there was a massive amount, only some. There were also consumers who only played the packed in Wii Sports on Wii or SMB+Duck Hunt on NES too. I'm not sure what attach rate has to do with any of this either, other than indicating all these mainstream systems are pretty comparable. Casuals aren't a uniquely Wii driven phenomenon, they've been gaming since the 70s.

Im sorry but no way do I equate these two lists in any way shape or form:

GTA
GT
FF
God of War
Tekken
MGS
Kingdom Hearts (youd think it would be casual but really its not it can be quite hard)
Madden

...then way down below 10th place you got eye toy which may have been bundled with some crap.

List 2

Wii Sports
Mario Kart
Wii Sports
Mario Party
SMB
Wii Play
Wii Fit
Wii Party
Smash Bros
Zelda
DKC
Just Dance X2
Links Crossbow training....

... lists courtesy of wiki....

you say "back then GTA was considered casual" what family is going to sit around murdering hookers on family night in GTA exactly?
Or complete a 4 hour Laguna Seca run on GT? Memory Card Battles?

Casuals flocked to the Wii in droves and the list is only further proof of that. Families, Grandparents, Kids, people with no interest in conventional games

Obviously there is opinion mixed up in who "casuals" means to different people....

 

[airmangataosenai]

Yeah, there was a typo, PS3's missing in FY32015, the rest of the numbers is correct.



It's an error, but it's still far away from 30.000.000 in 2003 or 23.000.000 units in 2008.

And the discussion is not about doom and gloom, it's about the fact, that Nintendos declining sales also affected a lot of other companies because they were not able to hold those numbers as you can see.

The last generation was gigantic, not just because of Nintendo, but Sony sold a lot of PS2s and PS3s and especially PSPs. The X360 was very popular to boot.

Well even if it was a mistake, revising the last set of figures up by 3 million units really does change the discussion. 18 million is in no way abnormal nor particularly low from a historical context. It's not the highest high but as your own chart shows, you rarely see those spikes and they're usually associated with major price drops (PS2 slashed it's price by 50% towards the beginning of the tracking period you cite for 2003), not typical tracking.In the year you mention they sold just under 23 million consoles, correct, however the very next year it declined to 18 million, lining the PS3 up better with the PS2 for a similar period in it's life cycle. In addition, during that same period they slashed the PS3's price by 30%. All the spikes you cite are associated with substantial price cuts, if we see a similar cut this year of $100, I am confident we will see a similar boost.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Uh-oh. The lists are arriving. Go away, lists.

 

[Fdkn]

Because it represents diversity, and one mans shovelware is another mans rough diamond is another mans guilty pleasure.

Somewhat respected titles like Earth Defence Force or Onechanbara are shovelware products.

that's almost insulting to those games and I don't agree at all, sorry (and fwiw, I've never bought them)

 

[timetokill]

I fully acknowledge there's contraction. I've never denied it. I'm simply saying its not a bad thing. People with a good grasp on the industry have said the same. In the end, my point is this: video game consoles are not going away. Not anytime soon.

That's ridiculous. Of course it's a bad thing.

It's not a catastrophic thing. (Yet). I'm not saying consoles are dead or on death's doorstep. But they're headed in that direction. When they get there, who can say.

But it's certainly bad.

 

[ZhugeEX]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trailing_twelve_months

Oh, I thought it was a game or something haha.

 

[Welfare]

Uh-oh. The lists are arriving. Go away, lists.

The only lists that should arrive is the individual sku charts

 

[prag16]

70k for 4 days in selling 100k more after a year of being out is very little, especially since it was out near the holidays. point is 136k for 2 days is not impressive, it's ok at best, next month it could do anywhere from 50-100k nobody really knows.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

that's almost insulting to those games and I don't agree at all, sorry (and fwiw, I've never bought them)

No, it is literally describing the development process that led to their creation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simple_series

 

[ZhugeEX]

From 2008, NPD has seen that software sales have been gradually declining and whilst hardware sales have been up for the PS3 and 360 thanks to Move and Kinect, the number of titles being released at retail each year is declining and the general industry has been in somewhat of a decline.

A lot has changed from Generation 7 to Generation 8 and I expect these changes to have an impact on hardware and software sales this generation. Ultimately I strongly believe that the 8th generation of home video game consoles will see a much smaller market than the 7th generation did and will sell a maximum of 150 million consoles worldwide by the end of 2019 compared to the 7th generation which sold almost 250 million units during the same time period.

The seventh generation started in 2005 with the Xbox 360 which started off slowly and actually tracked lower than the original Xbox initially, however a number of factors allowed the Xbox 360 to take off and eventually become the cumulative sales leader in the USA taking over the Wii which released a year later and pretty much doubling the sales of PlayStation 3 which released at the same time as the Wii.

The factors for the Xbox 360’s success were down to Microsoft improving on the original Xbox’s faults. Firstly they built a console that they wouldn’t have to sell at a loss but was still at a great price and more importantly cheaper than the PS3, secondly they created a lead over the PS3 and Wii before they launched which allowed for more third party support on the system and eventually a number of third party exclusives and even former PlayStation exclusives to launch on the system. Thirdly they marketed the console well and demonstrated its strengths such as the online capabilities; if you wanted to play online then Xbox Live was the best place to play and the only place to play if one of your friends had an Xbox 360. Finally the Xbox 360 never really took off in the USA but always remained ahead of the PS3 due to the year head start, however the launch of Kinect doubled the install base pretty much straight away and the 360 appealed to a casual audience with the success of this peripheral.

The PlayStation 3 failed to capitalise on the success of the PlayStation 2 and this was mainly down to the high launch price. Despite the new technical advancements of the console, only hardcore fans bought the console on day 1 and sales were abysmal for the first year with heavy competition from Microsoft’s Xbox 360, Nintendo’s Wii and even Sony’s own PlayStation 2. It wasn’t until a price drop that the console actually started to sell somewhat decently even matching 360 sales during some months in 2008/2009 in the USA. However the console was a pain to develop for and the games were few and far between and usually on 360 first. The online, whilst free, built a poor reputation and the console didn’t have a unique selling point to consumers that the Xbox 360 didn’t have as well. Ultimately the console wasn’t a huge failure but it wasn’t a success either and unlike Kinect, all that Move did was maintain sales, not grow them.

The Nintendo Wii was indeed a revolution and there were 4 main factors to its success. The first was price, the console launched considerably cheaper than its competition whilst still providing a power increase over the GameCube. Secondly the console introduced unique features such as motion controls and backwards compatibility which resonated with Nintendo fans, core gamers and casual gamers. Thirdly the first party support was top notch through bundled games and third party support was a supporting factor early on. Finally the console appealed to everyone and did what Sony had tried to do what the PS1 and PS2 wanted to do, attract all types of gamers from core to casual from day 1.

The 7th generation console market grew 44% to 111 million units in the USA which was somewhat of a surprise as the previous console generation had already grown by more than 50%. The 7th gen saw a role reversal with Nintendo and Microsoft doing better than Sony by far. However demand for the Nintendo Wii dropped away quickly after PS3 and Xbox 360 launched their motion control devices to extend sales, this method worked and the PS3 and Xbox 360 maintained their high sales much longer into the generation which was something that hadn’t been seen before when you consider that both the PS3 and 360 were still retailing at over $200. This really does come down to the motion control extension and the fact that there were no new consoles. It’s why the 8th gen saw huge opening sales for all 3 consoles.

It’s clear that the 8 year cycle for the 7th generation lasted a lot longer than the standard ~5 year cycle because Nintendo introduced a number of new audiences to gaming early on and wanted to extend that for as long as possible and maximise profits by creating more software for them to buy. Secondly, development times and costs had sky rocketed for game development and developers and publishers were having to delay games and the longer cycle allowed them to recoup losses. This point also applies to Microsoft and Sony who had to wait a lot longer into the gen before they because truly profitable. Thirdly the 7th generation was longer due to the rise of online gaming and services such as Netflix, all three consoles were marketed as entertainment systems and the aim was to sell to non gaming families as well but it would take a while for the cost of the consoles to come down to somewhere more affordable for this market.

I also believe that the Big 3 contributed to the decline of software sales in later years of the cycle due to not launching successors. Whilst core gamers were still purchasing games, casuals who had bought the 3 consoles were not inclined to buy games outside of main franchises such as Madden, Guitar Hero, Rockband and Singstar. However we know from the Wii that the casual market will eventually get tired of buying the same game for the same console and that’s why we saw these series (GH and RB) get axed. Casuals had already moved on to the next big thing or were still waiting for the next big thing. Ultimately, software sales declined in casual games because there was no one willing to buy the same game year after year, also because the cost of development for games was high with less people buying games it meant that publishers stepped on the brakes in regards to how many software titles were being developed and released each year. Some even went out of business because of this.

At the start of the 8th generation there was huge pent up demand for new consoles and each of the three new consoles had the biggest debut sales thanks to core gamers buying these consoles straight away. Right now console sales are tracking higher than last gen however we are already seeing a contraction in the market where the Wii U is dead, the Xbox One isn’t doing as well as it could and the PS4 is the strongest but ultimately won’t sell anything like the Wii as it doesn’t have the USP’s that the Wii had. Right now the PS4 and Xbox One are doing decently among the core and semi casual audiences but in order to grow the install base they will need to appeal to wider audience through the introduction of new innovative software titles, lower price points and unique features only found on console.

I believe that the potential market size for this generation will be a lot smaller than last generation due to three factors
- Mobile
- No successful extension tool
- Lack of unique software and price point to support

Since the launch of the iPhone, the consumer smartphone market has taken off and many have seen the potential in the gaming market on smartphones. It’s estimated that almost 1.5 billion smartphones will be sold to consumers this year with an install base of 2.3 billion smartphone users already. The Mobile Phone is the one consumer product that has really taken off and ultimately seen a 1:1 ratio between the number of mobile phone users and number of people on the planet. As smartphones get cheaper we’ll ultimately see the demise of non smartphone shipments and eventually everyone will have a smartphone.

Mobile gaming is growing in leaps and bounds with hit titles generating millions of dollars in revenue each day. There are many experiences that can be had on a mobile device that appeal to a very broad audience, games like candy crush come to mind. In this day and age a mobile is a necessity and as everyone has one they also have the opportunity to play games at no extra cost to their phone plan. Mobile is the place to be and right now there are thousands of new game titles being developed and published across Android and iOS for users to choose from, this is much more attractive for the casual user rather than a small selection of 150-200 titles per year on a games console that has a high start up cost and is less convenient to use. Most mobile games are free 2 play as well and the majority will never spend a penny on mobile games whilst others will but are not put off due to the low one off costs for virtual items. Consumers are more likely to purchase multiple items at a low cost over a long period of time rather than pay $60 upfront for a console title.

The cost to develop a simple mobile game is very low and as the market is so competitive this is a huge plus for mobile developers as they can develop a title for as cheap as possible and reap the rewards instantly. For console the risk is high, the development costs can be high and whilst the competition isn’t as large as it once was it can still be easy to release a game that bombs on the market. Hence why now we’ve seen so many publishers focus on a AAA formula that sells to the mass market whilst most other developers are creating smaller titles that will be put on the digital store only as the sales will not be enough to warrant a physical release and will just cover the game costs.

Mobile games are successful due to the simplicity of the games, the addictive nature, and the illusion that the title is free to play. I strongly believe that mobile and tablet devices have affected traditional console sales and have even stopped people from buying a console because they already have a mobile or tablet capable of playing games that they enjoy. Also many others prefer the simplicity of mobile games and don’t want to play games with multiple inputs where it takes time to learn the controls, in fact many people like this don’t see themselves as gamers despite playing mobile games so much, there is a clear divide between casual mobile gamer mentality and core console gamer mentality. Mobile gaming is seen as more acceptable in the social space. But then of course there is cross over as well, more than 60% of big spending mobile gamers also play console games which shows there isn’t as big as a divide between console and mobile players, after all everyone on this forum has played a mobile game at least once. Ultimately there is still a large core market for console gaming but the casual market is mostly on mobile with both the core and semi casual market that plays on both mobile and console. One factor I haven’t mentioned is PC gaming, I believe the rise of F2P gaming on PC through online, social and offline games will also attribute to a lack of future console sales.

The second point from above is the lack of a successful extension tool. This can mean anything from VR, to low pricing at the end of the generation, to unique software, basically anything that leads to an extension of sales over and above the norm. In this case I don’t see a case for VR to act as an extension tool. In other words I expect VR to provide a small increase in hardware sales but ultimately the majority of sales to come from those who already own a PlayStation 4 or Xbox One. I think that VR will follow the trend of 3D TV where the manufacturers will continually push it so that sales increase from day 1 but ultimately it’ll get to a point where it just isn’t worth it to invest further in VR on PlayStation 4. Note I’m not saying the VR as a whole but just on console gaming. With the Wii, Motion controls were easily demonstrable and simple and easy to use. VR requires more demo time, precise inputs and is not easy to show off to the average user. So this is why I believe that VR will not have a big impact on software and hardware sales. If anything I expect Morpheus to sell just slightly better than the original PlayStation EyeToy camera for PS2.

The third point I mentioned Is lack of software and price point. Right now the number of mainstream retail game releases is declining and we’re seeing that more and more games are failing to meet expectations. Especially smaller titles that are released at retail, Japanese developers for example are seeing low sales on PS4 and if their game doesn’t appeal to a Western audience then they will need to create a PS3 version for the Japanese audience which will sell. However the PS3 install base in Japan will not be around forever and that is why a number of Japanese developers have been or eventually will be focusing more on mobile. The same thing is happening in the USA to smaller extent where if your game doesn’t have a wide appeal then it’s not going to sell well and that’s not a good thing when development costs are consistently on the up.

It’s why we’ve seen studios close and developers focus more on multi platform solutions. Ultimately AAA developers will need to develop games using specific guidelines to ensure their games sell to wider audience and so that they can maximise the profit from those who are buying games through additional DLC and other content. I fully expect big game releases to see high sales whilst mid tier games will decline. I also expect to see a big digital push from smaller developers and indies. In fact we are already seeing this already with many indies choosing to publish their games as digital download only on PS4/X1. Whilst this will ensure that costs are low and easily recouped it doesn’t mean that sales will automatically be high as these are still smaller niche titles at the end of the day. Ultimately software sales will continue to decline in the overall market. In regards to price point I think that whilst prices will drop over time, there won't be a magical price that suddenly causes sales to skyrocket. Instead I think that Sony and Microsoft will follow a similar trend like MS did with the 360 last gen, keep the price as high as possible and only drop the price when sales are really dying to revitalise them. This way they are able to maximise profit and are still going to end up selling to the same audience and same amount anyway.

In conclusion, console gaming isn’t dead. There is still a core audience out there and AAA publishers and smaller indies will still cater to that core whilst they try to increase the profit they obtain from each customer. Ultimately console hardware will be down this gen and software too, this is due to all the reasons mentioned above.

Ok I’m tired, wrote this in last 20 minutes. Goodnight.
Agree or disagree?

 

[CosmicQueso]

I said god dayum. Zhuge dropping mics. Shut it down, people. We're done here.

 

[Welfare]

Making me read a fucking essay during summer. Better get to it.

Very great analysis ZHuge. 10/10 would read again.

 

[ZhugeEX]

I said god dayum. Zhuge dropping mics. Shut it down, people. We're done here.

Haha,

Sorry it's long and sorry that my English is poor sometimes.

I just thought I haven't made a meaningful post in a while so why not type up a 2,600 word essay.....

 

[Mister Megative]

That's ridiculous. Of course it's a bad thing.

It's not a catastrophic thing. (Yet). I'm not saying consoles are dead or on death's doorstep. But they're headed in that direction. When they get there, who can say.

But it's certainly bad.

I'm glad you're not saying that, because they're nowhere near either of those things.

Why is it bad, exactly?

 

[Fdkn]

No, it is literally describing the development process that led to their creation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simple_series

Even if their first entries could be called that, their actual iterations have nothing to do with the term. They are low budget games but they are far more solid games that what we describe as shovelware. In that same link they mention how the simple series stopped on the ps2 era and then they only continued on the wii because of its similarities with that gen.

GTA origins on psx were rough too.

 

[Leko04]

Everything was dissapointing. Especially my predictions. "Son i am doughnut".jpg

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Even if their first entries could be called that, their actual iterations have nothing to do with the term. They are low budget games but they are far more solid games that what we describe as shovelware. In that same link they mention how the simple series stopped on the ps2 era and then they only continued on the wii because of its similarities with that gen.

Shovelware is software developed on a low budget and with a quick turnaround.
The move to HD made shovelware unviable because the development costs and time requirement of development were too high.

As I said, there is good shovelware just as there is bad AAA.

GTA origins on psx were rough too.

On PC.

GTA was not shovelware.