flaviusconstantius
Member
I actually 100% agree with this. I think revolutionary add-ons have to be subsidized to such a degree that a critical mass is created(what Microsoft sort of did with Kinect, and Nintendo did do with the Wii). Otherwise you end up with bifurcated market at which point developers are loathe to take advantage of technology without consumers and consumers are reluctant to buy-in without software. Which means you get a series of "enhanced" experiences for games that run without the feature rather than exclusives. See the trouble Nintendo has had with the New 3DS, which has a net total of exactly one game. Square much prefers a visual downgrade of DQVIII to giving up sales, and as a consequence it loses what would otherwise be a system-mover in the Japanese market.
I think VR may well take-off, just not this generation, or not until the price is low-enough that it is a controller rather than a new system.
That also leads to my theory on the decline in consoles. I suspect it may not be so much casuals leaving as casuals diversifying. If you look at the level of electronics a family would own eight years ago, odds are you would see a handheld, one of a PS3/360, kids with their own computers(especially if at college) and a Wii. The very length of the last generation brought the prices down enough that multiple ownership was by the end somewhat common.
Today the actual need for such electronics has diversified. Every family member needs a phone, and with the WiiU being a bit of a luxury good, that leaves space for maybe one system, a situation reinforced by the fact that the software library across PC/XB1/PS4 is about 90% identical. Especially with PC games all having native controller support, and gaming laptops becoming more viable as console replacements(I recognize they are not going to equal the sort of performence PC Master Race members will care about but for 90% of consumers, what makes them a potential replacement is whether they run console ports comparably to consoles). As a consequence, if you want access to the big name titles, Assassins Creed, Fallout, what have you, you only need one of the three. For someone at University or in a small apartment in their 20s, a gaming Laptop is quite attractive for space reasons, and in my case I have had no reason to get a PS4/XB1 for that reason. But more importantly, no non-enthusiast consumer has any real reason to have both an PS4/XB1, or really to consider the WiiU at all. Furthermore, for most people, what matters is access, not exclusive access. If I am in a flat with two flatmates, having one PS4 or XB1 pretty much removes any need for anyone else in the flat to buy any other system given the limited amount of free time available and competing demands.
As a consequence, while I don't think the consumer base for video-game consoles has shrunk very much, I think the demand for more than one console among that base may have declined.
This is actually in my mind a source of a lot of Microsoft's struggle. The AAA model of multi-platform releases has led to such a lack of differentiation, that once people settled on a sufficient product they more or less stop looking, and Microsoft delivered a product that ran the 95% of software most people cared about worse at a higher price point, and then fell behind. And equally importantly, their big guns(Halo) were not utilized in the first two years in a way that might have mattered.
Nintendo, in turn, is in trouble because they do not support the 90% of software the median consumer is interested in at all, so a decision to purchase their product, especially at its price point, is a decision either to forgo that, or a luxury that only those intending to also purchase a PS4/XB1/Gaming PC can afford. They have somehow managed to produce a luxury good that offers an inferior experience to the median consumer.
Splatoon is the sort of thing that would really help Nintendo if Nintendo were selling the Xbox One. Its appeal outside of Nintendo's core audience is limited by the fact that its still an either/or choice for non-WiiU owners.
