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I guess it doesn't really matter all that much anyway, and it is interesting first and foremost because it is the only place in the world where we have a "real battle" on our hands.
Little America is where the true battle is.
I guess it doesn't really matter all that much anyway, and it is interesting first and foremost because it is the only place in the world where we have a "real battle" on our hands.
One of the biggest issues of consoles are value in gaming.
Most teens and kids now want a tablet, smartphone or console for Christmas bug they're to expensive to own all three for most people.
When I was young all kids wanted an Xbox or PS2 and the brick and mortar game stores were packed everyday. Those days are gone now.
Take the App Store on tablets and consoles for example, one is instant, in my hand at all times and easily accessible with constant updates and on consoles it's just not there.
Right... but how substantial a mainstream market exists will be determined partially by how many titles are being published for those Consoles. Are current output levels of Console focused titles enough to sustain the current HW sales of PS4 and Xone?
Content is king. Right now, the Console market is lacking Content. Without compelling mass market friendly content, the mainstream will stay away.
Just to restate my personal analysis here, it is this: the console market faces significant problems going forward. They've been bleeding market share to browers and PC and mobile for nearly a decade now, and that trend isn't abating. All the while, development costs continue to go up relentlessly. Despite these problems, however, there is a healthy market of dedicated console enthusiasts who are sustaining the market right now, and the contraction does not indicate some sort of catastrophic collapse in the forseeable future. In other words: there are serious problems, but not "consoles will be dead soon, this is the last generation, abandon ship" type problems.
You see it growing in the US too? Morpheus? Or price drop? Or something else?
Compared too X1 only it must have been shrinking for a while?
It is now ~52/48.
Last time the gap was ~800k (July/Aug 2014) it was ~55/45.
It has definitely gone slightly down for the last two months.
I guess it doesn't really matter all that much anyway, and it is interesting first and foremost because it is the only place in the world where we have a "real battle" on our hands.
TLDR; the majority of retail AAA console enthusiasts are male, between 12-30, buy 1 or 2 games per year, and have a narrow range of taste and are being served by the industry quite well.
Gap is near 700k, not 800k.
Here is the chart you asked for. What is most interesting is how the Wii U held 100% market share for the first year on the market but as soon as the PS4 and Xbox One were bought out their market share dropped to under 45% because the cumulative total of the PS4 and Xbox One launches was actually higher than the Wii U's LTD after one year on the market.
It took the PS4 till the first week of January 2014 to outsell the Wii U and took the Xbox One until March 2014. What we can see below is that the Wii U market share continues to decline and eventually will even go under 10% whilst the PS4 and Xbox One market shares have gradually increased but are now at a point where neither will significantly jump up. I do believe that the PS4 will start to pull ahead of the Xbox One in time and therefore will increase its market share percentage.
(Please note this is based off estimated numbers)
Gap is near 700k, not 800k.
Here is the chart you asked for. What is most interesting is how the Wii U held 100% market share for the first year on the market but as soon as the PS4 and Xbox One were bought out their market share dropped to under 45% because the cumulative total of the PS4 and Xbox One launches was actually higher than the Wii U's LTD after one year on the market.
It took the PS4 till the first week of January 2014 to outsell the Wii U and took the Xbox One until March 2014. What we can see below is that the Wii U market share continues to decline and eventually will even go under 10% whilst the PS4 and Xbox One market shares have gradually increased but are now at a point where neither will significantly jump up. I do believe that the PS4 will start to pull ahead of the Xbox One in time and therefore will increase its market share percentage.
(Please note this is based off estimated numbers)
A lot of people are confusing the phrase "The dedicated console market size has contracted" to mean "OMG VIDEO GAMEZ ARE DEAD!".
That's not the case at all.
True, but I believe it is all a matter of perspective. From the point of view of a die-hard console fan who grew up with the console market not just being the center of the gaming universe but the universe itself, it may well seem like the sky is falling. It's not, but today's gaming landscape is different in ways that make said fan feel uncomfortable, even scared.
True, but I believe it is all a matter of perspective. From the point of view of a die-hard console fan who grew up with the console market not just being the center of the gaming universe but the universe itself, it may well seem like the sky is falling. It's not, but today's gaming landscape is different in ways that make said fan feel uncomfortable, even scared.
Wasn't Madden just bundled?
Holding a firesale every year to keep from being swamped (worldwide or UK/USA) isn't sustainable. This gen is set, the only variable is how large the gap grows.
Great work - thanks a lot!
Very interesting to see - PS4 really pulling away up until October last year, Xbox One doing great work during the holidays, and the market share gap stabilizing pretty close to the December level up until now.
Thanks again!
Nice. Does anyone know what the marketshare percentage for Gamecube was? Will this be lower?
True, but I believe it is all a matter of perspective. From the point of view of a die-hard console fan who grew up with the console market not just being the center of the gaming universe but the universe itself, it may well seem like the sky is falling. It's not, but today's gaming landscape is different in ways that make said fan feel uncomfortable, even scared.
Early HW momentum though shows that the customer you're talking about is here... but mass market expansion and adoption will be necessary if this generation will have a similar sales curve to others. The current software offerings are very narrow in target market. Unless Rock Band/Guitar Hero can get back to the mass or Toys to Life really picks up pace on new gen, what is there to convince mom to buy a PS4 for her family this Christmas? Know what I mean?
Are current output levels of Console focused titles enough to sustain the current HW sales of PS4 and Xone?
(Please note this is based off estimated numbers)
I think it would be helpful to define the time horizons we're talking about.
In June 2015, to 3rd party publishers, 2 platforms in the Packaged Goods market matter: PS4 and Xbox One. Everything else is periphery at best, completely ignored at worst.
The dedicated handheld market for 3rd party publishers couldn't be more extinct when you look at release count. The PS3 and Xbox 360 are getting the last gasps of support, and sales are fairly dismal.
So what else is left to contract significantly in this market today? Not much.
Now, if MS decides to not make a next generation Console, then we really have contraction. However, this could be offset if Nintendo finds secret sauce and hits a homerun with the NX. How likely is that? Who knows.
So I'd very much disagree that one of the remaining big publishers will fold on their own. If anything, EA could very much be bought by Disney (probably dependent to some extent on how the Star Wars games do), or some other big media conglomerate M&A activity. Or, one of the big publishers could just stop making Console games after diversifying enough in other markets. That's completely plausible. Or a 1st party could choose not to participate in a next generation. All of these are more likely causes of changes to the remaining big pubs than the now niche core gaming customer base becoming disinterested.
Maybe that's some you say tomato I say tomayto type stuff... but the data suggest that further contraction in this space could very much be supply, not demand, related.
Absolutely, I definitely agree that most of the consolidation on the producer side is done for the foreseeable future -- with the very important caveat that we're talking about the west here, because Konami and Sega and Capcom are all still in the process of migrating away from consoles.
Contraction tends to be downward spiral-ish, unless you can break out of the spiral, of course. A full circle of the spiral can start with producers reducing output (or exiting the market), but then the next step in the process are that marginal consumers exit the market because their needs are no longer being fulfilled. In the long term this reduces output even further, which further marginalizes consumers, and so forth. This process continues until a very dedicated core of consumers remains who will stay under virtually any circumstance.
I think we're at the part in the spiral where consumers are leaving. Some have already left, obviously; those would be the most casual consumers. But the mid range consumer, who wasn't casual but also wasn't hyper dedicated may not be serviced as well now. They may see only 1-2 games a year they're interested in, and now maybe they're 33 and think "eh, I'm done I guess." That sort of consumer might start walking away.
We won't really know if that's happening until the end of the generation, but I strongly suspect it's happening right now, as we speak. Any potential repercussions on the production side won't be obvious for a long time, and of course, all of this is reversible/stoppable if conditions change. If the console manufacturers can figure out how to appeal more broadly again, get more games on their platforms, they can pull those fringe people back in along with casuals, if they're really good. We'll see.
I just wanted to highlight how contraction tends to occur. Production contraction leads to some marginal consumers walking away, with leads to further production contraction later on, which leads to the next most marginal consumers walking away, which leads to further production contraction, and so forth, all the way down until you are left with nothing but very dedicated consumers who will buy the product under virtually any condition.
Yeah, I think so.
Plus I'm also glad that Splatoon's in the Top 10, despite being out for only 3 days.
Because of the fact that shovelware helped cause the Great Video Game Crash. Shovelware literally killed the North American console game market until Nintendo and its overly restrictive policies revived the market.
I do believe that the PS4 will start to pull ahead of the Xbox One in time and therefore will increase its market share percentage.
False hyberbole.I can't believe with all the info we have history before 1986 is still complete nonsense and misinformation keeps spreading, doesn't surprise me gaming history basically is never taken seriously, never will, and why there's a lack of effort for older articles or information/data. Also why developers/publishers, bury their own history or make themselves look good if there's a gap somewhere that needs filling.
Why do you think this?
I think it's an important idea so I'm going to summarize it for clarity. The potential downward spiral of market contraction goes as follows:
1) For whatever reason, consumers start walking away from a market. Generally, the first consumers to go are those who are least invested/dedicated.
2) As the consumer base contracts, production responds by reducing production. Fewer products are made in the market.
3) As fewer products are made, the next most marginal customers begin to walk away. They were satisfied with the market before, but the contraction of production has made it slightly less appealing, and these consumers who were just barely interested enough are no longer satisfied.
4) As a response to further consumer base contraction, production contracts even further.
5) As a response to even further production contraction, the new most marginal consumer leaves.
Repeat indefinitely until either something significantly changes to disrupt the spiral or the market is reduced to a very core enthusiast market that will buy the product under virtually any circumstance. I personally believe we're currently at step 3 (or step 5, whichever), but maybe the spiral has been broken or stopped.
My goodness I wish I had your gift of succinctly capturing an idea and presenting it in an easily understandable way. This is what I was really failing at trying to say.
Why do you think this?
Right now the audience seems really interested in buying what's there, but I'm not convinced we're making nearly enough content for them.
Like the Summer is very barren. That is not good.
We see this manifest in the vastly larger amount of complaints about delays this generation, because there's nothing still coming out when games get delayed. Before they were noticed vastly less, and minded less to boot.
Things like Kickstarter are probably also the ultimate representation of an unsatisfied audience that is willing to go so far as to fund their own games so they can get things they want to play.
Imru al-Qays;167736838 said:You say this like it would be unusual. The eighth generation was the first that Nintendo didn't significantly undercut the competition in terms of pricing since at least the N64.
3 DS ~ 3k less than 100k
I think it's an important idea so I'm going to summarize it for clarity. The potential downward spiral of market contraction goes as follows:
1) For whatever reason, consumers start walking away from a market. Generally, the first consumers to go are those who are least invested/dedicated.
3 DS ~ 3k less than 100k
Well ps4 is still 399 and has not had any price drops, what happens when PS4 and x1 are back to price parity? MS can only go so low, I agree with him I think eventually the gap will grow a lot more. We are year 2 into the gen and the ps4 is clearly the console more people want currently as even at 50 cheaper PS4 is still winning most months in the US>
Me too haha.
Multiple reasons which when combined should allow the PS4 to pull ahead in the US Market.
- PS4 already is the cumulative leader and has larger positive mind share in the US as the console of choice this gen.
- The PS4 will have more appealing titles that are exclusive/have exclusive content in the US.
- The PS4 should have a price advantage later in the gen
- Morpheus and other PlayStation exclusive features will help sales of the console
- There are still core, semi casual and casual gamers who are yet to buy an 8th gen console.
3 DS ~ 3k less than 100k
Thanks for the number.
n3DS effect is gone.
PS4 has been struggling to pull ahead for almost 2 years.
1. Barely.
2. This requires a crystal ball and knowing what people want to buy.
3. Why?
4. An Expensive add-on is going to sell consoles? (at least the number you're implying.
5. Which could also translate to Xbox as well this isn't a PS4 exclusive feature.
Seems clear to me it can go either way based on game announcements.
PS4 has been struggling to pull ahead for almost 2 years.
LMAo yeah it's more expensive, which was the entire point of my post...It won't be forever. Sony has had to do nothing to maintain a lead in MS strongest territory...What happens when PS4 is the same price or even cheaper?
Ps4 will widen it's lead eventually imo.
PS4 has been struggling to pull ahead for almost 2 years.
So what does that make the XBone who has yet to pull even in 2 years with all the price cuts and bundled giveaways?
Narrative spins - so dizzy.
Another fine graduate of the hasbarah school of marketing. bravo. your historical revisionism is breath taking.
Considering ones increasing and ones decreasing I don't see that at all. Not to mention we are randomly assuming that a price drop of $349, which has already been done, will suddenly boost the PS4 "ahead" instead of at close range. Same with $299, where both will likely drop.
As I said before, I think it can go either way depending on the games. I do believe one of them will show a pull ahead b y the end of this year, or CLOSE to that.
PS4 has been struggling to pull ahead for almost 2 years.
1. Barely.
2. This requires a crystal ball and knowing what people want to buy.
3. Why?
4. An Expensive add-on is going to sell consoles? (at least the number you're implying.
5. Which could also translate to Xbox as well this isn't a PS4 exclusive feature.
Seems clear to me it can go either way based on game announcements.
Despite Dreamcast selling a mere 32 units this month it still remains ahead of WiiU...but we're down to a gap of 11,167 units.
Because we know at the same price ps4 was way outselling x1 and is even when it is more expensive it is obvious IMO.