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[Brazil]

The odds of GT5 beating GT4 are prety prety low... It not only would have to sell to 20% of the userbase, but it would have to reverse a trend started with GT2 (each new game selling less than the previous one).

So?

That doesn't really mean anything. It's not like people are determined to make the game sell less than GT4.

 

[BishopLamont]

I think GT5 will do similar to FFXIII in that it'll fall short of its predecessor but not by too much.

So?

That doesn't really mean anything. It's not like people are determined to make the game sell less than GT4.

What? It means a ton, games that are on a downward trend rarely buck it.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

I think GT5 will do similar to FFXIII in that it'll fall short of its predecessor but not by too much.


What? It means a ton, games that are on a downward trend rarely buck it.

GT5 is not Final Fantasy. It has a much broader appeal.

 

[Chris1964]

GT5 is not Final Fantasy. It has a much broader appeal.

We are not talking worldwide.

 

[Fularu]

Yeah, I think that was the general consensus from several months back, too. Something like 800K-1.1m was the general expected range, IIRC.

1.1 million would be very surprising.

I can see it doing 750k though (before best releases and co). After all the prologue versions didn't light the world on fire and sold significantly less than GT4 prologue did.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I would think that if it didn't beat GT3 first week and GT4 LTD it would have to be considered a major disappointment.

If they get GT4 sales in Japan i think they be rather happy to tell the truth .
Still GT games normally have legs but i don't know if it's the same way in Japan.

 

[BishopLamont]

GT5 is not Final Fantasy. It has a much broader appeal.

Take a look at the sales of FF12 and GT4.

Oh God just noticed the sales of PSP GoW, I'm not one to bring up digital sales in Japan, but surely that must be the reason in this case right? Those sales are really shitty.

 

[Datschge]

I think the outsourcing was only done so they could release IU and SO4 on schedule.

"only" =P You are forgetting Valkyrie Profile DS for which nearly all graphics were outsourced. And while EoE/RoF was done more in the way of the old tri-Ace (mainly thanks to mostly carrying over the excellent VP2 staff) the amount of "outsourcing" (by the way of work publisher Sega contributed) is still significantly more than any pre-this-gen tri-Ace game.

Honestly, I think unless something changes dramatically, they're pretty much finished.

With Baten Kaitos and Eternal Sonata they started with three quite widely recognized games. Considering it is privately owned you are overly negative there though. As the small developer tri-Cescendo is (with 31 employees) nobody should expect them to be able to keep being involved in similar projects, and their last works are much more in line with works of other such developers.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

With Baten Kaitos and Eternal Sonata they started with three quite widely recognized games. Considering it is privately owned you are overly negative there though. As the small developer tri-Cescendo is (with 31 employees) nobody should expect them to be able to keep being involved in similar projects, and their last works are much more in line with works of other such developers.

Interesting (thx datschge and duckroll for the discussion), I think Namco Bandai is done with Tri-Crescendo though, but guess they can still go to some other publisher (thought they were namco owned so they couldn't). Monolithsoft seems fine (forgot about SRW OG Saga 2), but will also be interesting it they follow up Xenoblade on Wii or go 3DS-only (be it Nintendo or Namco Bandai). Tri-Ace huh...a bit mysterious, they seemed to make up with Square-Enix and Sega RoF didn't fare too bad, its indeed fishy we haven't heard anything about them.

 

[Rolf NB]

Take a look at the sales of FF12 and GT4.

There were ~2 years between GT Concept and GT4 Prologue, and the latter sold 2.24 times as much as the former (748k vs 334k). If GT5 were to exhibit the same rate of increase, it could come close to GT4.

OTOH GT4 Prologue to GT4 final only saw a unit increase of 43% (1066k vs 748k). However, there was only one year between these two releases. It's already two years since GT5 Prologue Spec III.

Speaking of which, GT5P S3 is only 23% of the original GT5P (295k vs 239k), with a year's gap between the two releases. That'd be a hint on the other side, speaking against strong GT5 sales expectations.

Point being, releases in quick succession "graze" away a lot of the demand. With a two-year window since the last stopgap release though, the final game could see a healthy increase.

garaph link

Keep in mind that PS3 install base more than doubled since late 2008.

Oh God just noticed the sales of PSP GoW, I'm not one to bring up digital sales in Japan, but surely that must be the reason in this case right? Those sales are really shitty.

Cultural compatibility issues? Chains Of Olympus opened only slightly higher, 16950 units. The series as a whole isn't too hot of a property in Japan.

 

[king zell]

Call of Duty: Black Ops this week biggest release (WHAT)

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/16605

Criminal Girls are here

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/16602

more releases for the week

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/16600

 

[BishopLamont]

There were ~2 years between GT Concept and GT4 Prologue, and the latter sold 2.24 times as much as the former (748k vs 334k). If GT5 were to exhibit the same rate of increase, it could come close to GT4.

OTOH GT4 Prologue to GT4 final only saw a unit increase of 43% (1066k vs 748k). However, there was only one year between these two releases. It's already two years since GT5 Prologue Spec III.

Speaking of which, GT5P S3 is only 23% of the original GT5P (295k vs 239k), with a year's gap between the two releases. That'd be a hint on the other side, speaking against strong GT5 sales expectations.

Point being, releases in quick succession "graze" away a lot of the demand. With a two-year window since the last stopgap release though, the final game could see a healthy increase.

garaph link

Keep in mind that PS3 install base more than doubled since late 2008.

Userbase rarely matters when we're this late into the generation and the nature of the PS3 usershare has shown many games are selling about the same as their predecessors. I do get the feeling the slim has revived the PS3 enough to push GT5 over GT4, but either way, it won't be much of a decline or increase.

Cultural compatibility issues? Chains Of Olympus opened only slightly higher, 16950 units. The series as a whole isn't too hot of a property in Japan.

Ah dang, even GoW3 only sold 43k on opening week, I always thought it sold decently in Japan.

 

[Chris1964]

Ah dang, even GoW3 only sold 43k on opening week, I always thought it sold decently in Japan.

Famitsu

17/11/05 [PS2] God of War (Capcom) - 6.861 / 9.212
28/09/06 [PS2] God of War [CapKore] (Capcom) - / 21.201
06/09/07 [PS2] God of War [Best Price!] (Capcom) - / 31.752

25/10/07 [PS2] God of War II (Capcom) - 18.463 / 36.854

10/07/08 [PSP] God of War: Chains of Olympus (Capcom) - 16.850 / 39.519
16/04/09 [PSP] God of War: Chains of Olympus [Best Price!] (Capcom) - / 7.339

18/03/10 [PS3] God of War Collection (Capcom) - 11.610 / 23.456
25/03/10 [PS3] God of War III (SCE) - 44.583 / 88.956
25/03/10 [PS3] God of War Trilogy (SCE) - 16.453 / 16.453

 

[Moor-Angol]

i really lost the count about how many shops i visited when i was looking for used God of War I & II (regular editions)......
they were not high priced, but really hard to find

 

[Chris1964]

official Kinect launch event at Akihabara Yodobashi Camera.

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2010/11/20/kinect_japanese_launch/


20 Pokemon DSi bundles each at SoftMap.

http://yfrog.com/3v5gfgj

 

[farnham]

official Kinect launch event at Akihabara Yodobashi Camera.

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2010/11/20/kinect_japanese_launch/


20 Pokemon DSi bundles each at SoftMap.

http://yfrog.com/3v5gfgj

lines ? in japan? for 360 ? :lol :lol wow

 

[BishopLamont]

Famitsu

17/11/05 [PS2] God of War (Capcom) - 6.861 / 9.212
28/09/06 [PS2] God of War [CapKore] (Capcom) - / 21.201
06/09/07 [PS2] God of War [Best Price!] (Capcom) - / 31.752

25/10/07 [PS2] God of War II (Capcom) - 18.463 / 36.854

10/07/08 [PSP] God of War: Chains of Olympus (Capcom) - 16.850 / 39.519
16/04/09 [PSP] God of War: Chains of Olympus [Best Price!] (Capcom) - / 7.339

18/03/10 [PS3] God of War Collection (Capcom) - 11.610 / 23.456
25/03/10 [PS3] God of War III (SCE) - 44.583 / 88.956
25/03/10 [PS3] God of War Trilogy (SCE) - 16.453 / 16.453

Damn, much worse than I thought.

lines ? in japan? for 360 ? :lol :lol wow

What lines? They expect lines? :lol

 

[duckroll]

"only" =P You are forgetting Valkyrie Profile DS for which nearly all graphics were outsourced. And while EoE/RoF was done more in the way of the old tri-Ace (mainly thanks to mostly carrying over the excellent VP2 staff) the amount of "outsourcing" (by the way of work publisher Sega contributed) is still significantly more than any pre-this-gen tri-Ace game.

Yes, I actually did forget all about VP DS. :lol

With Baten Kaitos and Eternal Sonata they started with three quite widely recognized games. Considering it is privately owned you are overly negative there though. As the small developer tri-Cescendo is (with 31 employees) nobody should expect them to be able to keep being involved in similar projects, and their last works are much more in line with works of other such developers.

I guess we'll see. I just don't have a good feeling about the value the studio has in the long term. If there are no announcements and projects in 2011, then I would say they're on the way out. Maybe they should see if tri-Ace wants to hire their ex-sound crew back.

 

[farnham]

What lines? They expect lines? :lol

i thought i saw lines for kinect in japan

 

[BishopLamont]

i thought i saw lines for kinect in japan

So did you or not? lol

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Putting it up a day earlier than usual so there's a bit more time as its the first big week in a good row.

Prediction League (22-28 November)

[NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco) -
[NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami) -
[WII] Mario Sports Mix (Nintendo) -
[PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE) -

Deadline is Wednesday when famitsu puts up online top10 for week 15-21 nov (as usual).

 

[jakncoke]

Call of Duty: Black Ops this week biggest release (WHAT)

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/16605

Criminal Girls are here

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/16602

more releases for the week

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/16600

Well MW2 ps3 opening week was 117k, so I don't know why it's so much a what

 

[RBH]

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2010/11/20/kinect_japanese_launch/

It may be trailing the world by just a bit, but the Japanese version of Kinect is all set to launch today. Microsoft is releasing the device in a special Saturday launch (as opposed to the usual Thursday), complete with the kinds of festivities we've come to expect form a big Microsoft product launch here.

Those festivities include pop stars and wrestlers. Yes, we have seen examples of both at past Microsoft launches (example). Keiji Mutoh is taking care of the wrestler role here. Doing the pop star duties this time are SKE48 members Rena Matsui and Jurina Matsui, who've formed special unit "Team Kinect."

The three will appear along side Microsoft Home & Entertainment head Takashi Sensui at an early morning launch event at the massive Yodobashi Camera in Akihabara, one of Microsoft's favorite launch spaces. We've dispatched your andriasang.com Special Kinect Correspondent "cvxfreak" to cover the event and will be posting the live updates he sends below.

 

[jcm]

One of these things is not like the others,
One of these things just doesn't belong,
Can you tell which thing is not like the others
By the time I finish my song?

 

[Chris1964]

Speaking for Japanese lines for 360 who can forget these?

 

[[Nintex]]

I present to you the king of hipsters:

Kudo has just been outhipstered.

 

[Chris1964]

Predictions

[NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco) - 123.456
[NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami) - 34.567
[WII] Mario Sports Mix (Nintendo) - 78.901
[PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE) - 456.789

Maybe I'll revise Mario Sports Mix later.

 

[BishopLamont]

One of these things is not like the others,
One of these things just doesn't belong,
Can you tell which thing is not like the others
By the time I finish my song?

rofl :lol

Looks like I got some crow to eat.

 

[Chris1964]

From Marvelous financial report

Estimated development costs for systems:

PS2: 50 million yen
3DS: 70-150 million yen
PSP: 120 million yen
PS3/360: 360 million yen

WII and DS: Not mentioned

http://blog.livedoor.jp/gehaneta/archives/3102528.html

 

[Durante]

Estimated development costs for systems:

Why would PSP be more than twice as high as PS2?

 

[Chris1964]

Why would PSP be more than twice as high as PS2?

Except 3DS that is an estimate all the other are average development costs.

PS2 costs are now 50-60 million yen but when they started developing for it they were 200-300 million yen. Obviously they have dedicated more time and resources to PS2 development than PSP and they expect 3DS costs to go down the same way PS2 went down.

 

[A Twisty Fluken]

Ok, on the list of things I did not expect to see upon clicking this thread: Mutoh doing the Muta pose with B-list idols.

I would buy Kinect for an on-rails mist-spitting game I guess.

 

[Datschge]

Maybe they should see if tri-Ace wants to hire their ex-sound crew back.

I highly doubt that. tri-Ace just staffed that area with its own new hires, why should the staff be replaced back again? (But it would be interesting to know if tri-Crescendo stopped doing their sound works by itself or tri-Ace told them to go away. That change is more curious to me than tri-Crescendo's development.)

 

[cvxfreak]

I guess some explanation is due for the Kinect launch. I handled the event for AndriaSang, after all.

It was held at the huge Yodobashi Camera in Akihabara. This was the only store in Akihabara that attracted any kind of line for Kinect. I didn't see anything in other stores, so I would guess that the relatively small number of people who wanted a Kinect in the first place had the incentive to go to Yodobashi in Akihabara, see the videos and the wrestler and the general festivities and then buy the system. I don't blame them for that. They're actually pretty fun to attend. The line itself was actually pretty small compared to other launches (FFXIII, MH3, Pokemon B/W to name a few).

But were there lines elsewhere in Shinjuku and such? Doubt it. No one's posted any photos indicating otherwise.

 

[onken]

Yeah I went down my local game emporium today and chatted to the manager there. They'd sold one 250gb bundle (hw bump confirmed?!) but no stand alones and no software. He speculated that releasing on an odd day didn't help.

 

[duckroll]

I highly doubt that. tri-Ace just staffed that area with its own new hires, why should the staff be replaced back again? (But it would be interesting to know if tri-Crescendo stopped doing their sound works by itself or tri-Ace told them to go away. That change is more curious to me than tri-Crescendo's development.)

Yes, it was a joke. I honestly feel that they're basically screwed in the long term unless they can somehow get another decent hit within the next 1-2 years.

 

[Spiegel]

Predictions

[NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco) - 63000
[NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami) - 22000
[WII] Mario Sports Mix (Nintendo) - 58000
[PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE) - 529000

 

[BishopLamont]

I guess some explanation is due for the Kinect launch. I handled the event for AndriaSang, after all.

It was held at the huge Yodobashi Camera in Akihabara. This was the only store in Akihabara that attracted any kind of line for Kinect. I didn't see anything in other stores, so I would guess that the relatively small number of people who wanted a Kinect in the first place had the incentive to go to Yodobashi in Akihabara, see the videos and the wrestler and the general festivities and then buy the system. I don't blame them for that. They're actually pretty fun to attend. The line itself was actually pretty small compared to other launches (FFXIII, MH3, Pokemon B/W to name a few).

But were there lines elsewhere in Shinjuku and such? Doubt it. No one's posted any photos indicating otherwise.

*vomits out the crow*

 

[onken]

Do we know the initial shipment for GT5? Sell-through is going to be pretty high I reckon, literally every game shop near me (and a bunch of online retailers) have stopped taking pre-orders.

Predictions (units of 10k)
[NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco) - 10,5
[NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami) - 4,0
[WII] Mario Sports Mix (Nintendo) - 6,5
[PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE) - 55,0

 

[duckroll]

Predictions
[NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco) - 156k
[NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami) - 28k
[WII] Mario Sports Mix (Nintendo) - 82k
[PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE) - 440k

 

[Road]

Predictions

[NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco) - 111,111
[NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami) - 33,333
[WII] Mario Sports Mix (Nintendo) - 66,666
[PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE) - 444,444

 

[u_neek]

[NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco) - 135k
[NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami) - 30k
[WII] Mario Sports Mix (Nintendo) - 60k
[PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE) - 510k

 

[The_lascar]

Predictions

[NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco) - 130k
[NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami) - 25k
[WII] Mario Sports Mix (Nintendo) - 80k
[PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE) - 580k

 

[ULTROS!]

[NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco) - 90k
[NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami) - 30k
[WII] Mario Sports Mix (Nintendo) - 90k
[PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE) - 520k

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Last call, less than a hour left to post predictions...onken, if you're going to use ten thousands please mention it lol

Predictions
[NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco) - 115k
[NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami) - 25k
[WII] Mario Sports Mix (Nintendo) - 65k
[PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE) - 615k

 

[Kenka]

My take :


[NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco) - 98k
[NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami) - 21k
[WII] Mario Sports Mix (Nintendo) - 57k
[PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE) - 575k

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

Predictions
[NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco) - 168k
[NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami) - 24k
[WII] Mario Sports Mix (Nintendo) - 65k
[PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE) - 600k

 

[onken]

Last call, less than a hour left to post predictions...onken, if you're going to use ten thousands please mention it lol

Whups sorry, I was just done reading the MC weekly report and had it stuck in my head

 

[Takao]

The problem with the current gen Dragonball Z games is that they haven't even been able to match the content of the last gen PS2 games, but all the games still are based on the PS2 ones, so they also suffer from the natural sales loss due to lack of attracting power for new users and also lost sales due to that lack of content compared to previous titles. And the Raging Blast games have been released during DB Kai's airing in Japan, which has been successful, so it's not a decrease of interest on the franchise in general. They only have themselves to blame for this.

Burst Limit was a Budokai with new features and system changes, but a vastly decreased cast, less characters than Budokai 1. Rather than bumping the sales with the next gen transition, it just sold even worse than Budokai 3.

Then... rather than revaluing their atittude... they went and did the exact same thing to the Sparking/Tenkaichi series. Raging Blast was clearly based on Tenkaichi gameplay-wise, but had less content than the first Tenkaichi game. So, it sold worse than any Tenkaichi game, not benefiting from the generation change at all.

Same thing for Raging Blast 2 - which still had less content than the Tenkaichi from last gen, but had nothing to attract new players aside from a remake of an OVA (and, considering how DVD sales are much lower than game sales in Japan, they should have known that an OVA wouldn't do much for the sales of this game).

Considering their total mishandling of their failures so far, I expect to see a Raging Blast 3 with some other useless fanservice extra which will yet again perform even worse than the previous titles.

I don't know what happened with Origins 2 though, never followed that series.

Eh, I've thought about this for a while, and I just think Scamco has hit a ceiling with the amount of people who are willing to put up with their crap (DB merchandise sales in Japan are also low, despite Kai doing extremely well, makes me think Scamco can't sell kids the same 4 figures of Goku anymore). Spike games (which are on a sharp downward trend) always put focus on the character roster, or other fanservice goods rather than actual gameplay. Many in Japan still play their PS2s, and as you mentioned, the PS2 entries in the series had a considerable amount more of content than any of the games this gen. I do wonder if putting a bunch of these games under a generic "Dragon Ball" umbrella hurt more than it helped. Both Tenkaichi Tag Team, and Raging Blasts both were put under a new Scamco created label, not under "Z", "GT", or "Kai". That actually gave me hope those games would cover more than Z/Kai, but neither actually did...

Next year we'll see the bound to be shitty DS fighting game with voice command (interestingly, this one is under the Kai label), and maybe a port of the new arcade game (Scamco may rush out another Tenkaichi Tag Team just so that they give the engine another go on PSP). Spike has mentioned that Raging Blast 3 is already in development (what a great way to sell less copies) so that's probably next year as well. After Spike is done ruining the bed, given that Dimp's output will have decreased, I can see another Burst Limit. BL is the highest selling Dragon Ball game of this generation (it has been the only one to actually crack a million worldwide).

 

[Chris1964]

Famitsu top 10: 15/11/10-21/11/10

01. / 00. [PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops (Subtitled Edition) (Square Enix)
02. / 00. [NDS] Super Fossil Fighters (Nintendo)
03. / 01. [PSP] Tactics Ogre: Let Us Cling Together (Square Enix)
04. / 04. [WII] Super Mario All-Stars (Nintendo)
05. / 00. [360] Call of Duty: Black Ops (Subtitled Edition) (Square Enix)
06. / 05. [NDS] Pokemon Black / White (Pokemon Co.)
07. / 00. [PSP] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2011 (Konami)
08. / 03. [NDS] Magician’s Quest: The Merchant’s Store of Sorcery (Konami)
09. / 00. [PSP] Criminal Girls (Nippon Ichi Software)
10. / 08. [WII] Wii Party (Nintendo)